Aluminum prices are running strongly, and pay attention to changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine in the short term

In terms of news, the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become intense, the whole country of Ukraine has entered a state of war readiness, many military facilities in Ukraine have been destroyed and hit, and panic in the financial market has risen
sharply.
The European Union and the United States announced sanctions against Russia, which seriously affected the "Nord Stream-2" project, considering that the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and there is great uncertainty
in overseas natural gas supply before the spring season.
In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the subsequent export of RUSAL will be suppressed
.

In terms of spot, the morning purchasing sentiment turned from weak to strong, procurement activity rebounded, although the downstream is still wait-and-see, but the middleman receiving strength increased, the spot discount range narrowed to the current month discount around
60 yuan / ton.
The spot price in the Central Plains (Gongyi) area narrowed in early trading compared with the previous day's discount, affected by the recovery of the purchase of holders, the supply of goods was slightly tighter, but the downstream entry rhythm has not yet opened, and some enterprises are still waiting and seeing
.

In terms of inventory, social treasury data showed that inventories accumulated and slowed down
.
On February 24, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
099 million tons, 18,000 tons
more than Monday.
On February 24, LME aluminum stocks fell by 9,750 tons from the previous session to 824,000 tons
.
Although domestic inventories are still increasing this week, social aluminum ingot stocks have risen to around 1.
1 million tons, but the accumulation rate has slowed down, and the scale of outbound stocks has rebounded, and it is expected that the destocking will be cashed
in next week.

In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is uneven
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs a seasonal slow recovery, but considering the current high aluminum prices or suppressing demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.

In terms of prices, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter, and it is recommended to unilaterally treat
the idea of bargain hunting and long.