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Recently, due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, downstream processing enterprises are afraid of heights, and the market circulation is not good, but from the perspective of downstream orders, the current order volume is sufficient, and demand is still good, supporting aluminum prices
.
Therefore, it is expected that domestic electrolytic aluminum will maintain a slight destocking trend in May, but the destocking rate may be difficult to increase
.
At the same time, the electrolytic aluminum industry in May and June may usher in a concentrated production period, or usher in a boom
in supply and demand.
Overseas, they continue to pay attention to vaccination and epidemic control
.
In the short term, aluminum prices remain strong under the push of macro sentiment, and a pullback is not ruled out, but the high price recommends caution in the rhythm of operation
.
This week's inventory data performed better, with aluminum ingots destocking 54,000 tons per week, but factors such as U.
S.
inflation exceeding expectations led to a decline in macro sentiment and domestic high-level re-mention of commodity prices rising too fast led to the overall decline in nonferrous metals
.
From a fundamental point of view, domestic rigid demand is strong, except for the automotive sector due to the lack of core production caused by the decline in demand, other sector orders can still be maintained
in May.
In terms of exports, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April was 437,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, or affected by the anti-dumping duties imposed on domestic aluminum in Europe and other regions, considering the strong recovery in Europe and the United States, the premium continues to rise, and exports still have room
for improvement.
On the supply side, the production reduction in Inner Mongolia in the second quarter was maintained, the new production capacity of Geely Bai Mine was increased, superimposed on the production capacity of Zhongrui and Hengxing, the supply maintained an upward trend, in addition, the import window was opened again recently, and the inventory in the bonded area was expected to flow in, and the import source once again formed an impact
.
On the whole, macro maintenance is conducive to a good environment for nonferrous metals, domestic supply and demand performance is both prosperous, inventories continue to perform, while the background of carbon neutrality continues to provide strong support, aluminum prices will maintain a strong operation of volatility, it is recommended to go long on dips, but not blindly chasing up
.
