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Since late March, aluminum prices have fallen to around 13,700 yuan / ton, some aluminum plants have lost money, production costs have increased to support aluminum prices, aluminum prices continue to have limited downward space, and the second quarter is expected to rebound
.
In the external market, during the Qingming holiday, Lun Aluminum stopped 8 consecutive negatives, last Friday, the US March non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly weakened to suppress the US dollar, Lun Aluminum jumped sharply to close up 2.
34%.
Combined with Trump's remarks on Twitter, Sino-US trade frictions seem to have eased signs, it is expected that the base metal will be shaken today, and Lun aluminum will run strongly at 2060~2100 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of the market, the price of domestic spot aluminum fell slightly last Wednesday, and the spot AOO aluminum ingot price of Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network was reported at 13970 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan
.
The AOO aluminum ingot price in East China was reported at 13,900 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton
.
China continues to promote electrolytic aluminum to reduce production capacity, the supply-side reform promotion effect will gradually appear, the demand side due to the gradual lifting of the heating season shutdown restrictions and steady recovery, supply and demand relationship to support the upward
trend of aluminum prices.
Spot aluminum is expected to rise
today.
In terms of inventory, data released in the last issue of this week 4 showed that aluminum inventories fell by 154 tons to 970233 tons, falling from a historical high, and the growth momentum may be curbed
.
On April 2, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 2.
227 million tons, down 30,000 tons week-on-week, down 60,000 tons from March 19, which initially confirmed that the demand for aluminum market turned better
.
In terms of news, last week China closed due to Qingming, stimulated by China's rapid announcement of a list of reciprocal tax increases, Trump said on Friday that he asked for an increase of $100 billion in taxes on China's products, China announced that it would respond equally, and said that there was no basis for negotiations between the two sides, the trade war may escalate, market worries intensified, U.
S.
stocks rose first and then fell, fell more than 2% on Friday, the pressure of technical forms became more and more obvious, and commodities weakened in tandem with the US dollar, affected by the announcement of sanctions against Rusal, Lun aluminum soared, and the impact of the trade war has begun to be reflected
。
Overall, in 2018, China entered the "post-supply-side reform" of electrolytic aluminum, and the marketization and legalization of the National Development and Reform Commission continued to promote electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the disorderly state of production capacity will be gradually improved, and the supply side will enter a benign track; On the demand side, with the end of the heating season, the production restriction order is lifted, and the upstream and downstream enterprises of aluminum have resumed work one after another, the demand side may recover steadily, and the window period for aluminum price rebound will come
.
