Aluminum prices are caught in a dilemma The overall consumption situation is average

Spot market transactions increased significantly in the morning, as downstream stockpiles were stocked at the weekend, while middlemen remained active
.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 14250 yuan / ton, which is about 10 higher than futures
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is about
14250 yuan / ton.
Although it is difficult to increase production in the short term, due to the delay in domestic consumption, prices temporarily lack further upward momentum, short-term shock adjustment is the mainstay, and there are still opportunities for prices to rise after the later consumption improves significantly
.

At present, the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream fear of heights, limited orders, August is still the downstream consumption off-season, the recent alumina production restriction plan may make the price of alumina stabilize in late August, but lack of sustained positive stimulation, aluminum prices into a dilemma pattern, it is expected that the recent aluminum price shock stabilized
.

Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 148676 tons, an increase of about 7% from last week, and the decline in inventory has slowed down since July, but the overall release of domestic refineries due to capital problems may be slightly slower than market expectations, and the destocking in August may still continue; Aluminum inventories in the previous period of this week fell by 3,804 tons from last week to 387663 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China is 1.
051 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, and the overall social inventory in the past four weeks is sorted out in a narrow range; the social inventory of aluminum rods is about 90,500 tons, down about 3% from last week, and the price of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots has recovered steadily since August, but it is at a low level in the same period of 5 years, and it is expected that the overall recovery will still be before
early September.
LME stocks were 969,250 tonnes, down about 3% from last week and at their lowest level since 2008
.

Theoretical profit: the theoretical loss of imports was 1100 yuan / ton, slightly narrower than last week, and the loss was at the low level of the central axis in the same period since 2013; The theoretical production profit margin of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise back and forth in June, and is currently at a high level since 2017, with the domestic alumina operating rate at the low level since 2010, while the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is at the high level of the same period
.
The price difference between aluminum rod and aluminum ingot in South China is at the low level of the range in 2010, and the overall consumption situation is general, and the price difference is expected to recover
in the second half of the year.
Aluminum theoretical export profit fell slightly in July, currently in the same period of nearly four years at the axis level, the current aluminum export volume is still at the high level in recent years, but in March this year to show a slight downward pattern, is expected to continue in the second half of the year
.