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Overnight aluminum prices fluctuated strongly
.
After the holiday, the total accumulation of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was comparable to that in recent years, but the amount of aluminum ingots was small, and the ratio of Shanghai aluminum positions and receipts was at a high level
in recent years.
The local holiday made the market expect that the post-holiday consumption recovery would be faster than in previous years, and the circulation of aluminum ingots was lower than in previous years, making the spot market performance stronger, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots gradually turned to premium
.
With the blessing of macro atmosphere, short-term Shanghai aluminum is expected to follow the overall strength of nonferrous metals, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of
pullback after overheating.
From a fundamental point of view, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has been in the accumulation cycle, and the downstream aluminum rod inventory has also increased greatly, but the market transaction downstream reserve warehouse and demand start logic, but ignore the lack
of fundamentals.
The particularity of this year's Spring Festival determines the mismatch of production and demand in the processing industry, and some aluminum ingots are transferred to downstream finished product inventory
in advance.
The key in the later stage is the accumulation of social stocks such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods; The second is whether the rise in price can be reflected in the processing fee, that is, whether the rise in aluminum prices can be smoothly transmitted
to the terminal.
In the short term, the high market sentiment under the aluminum price is still guaranteed, investors must pay attention to the time node in mid-March, when the fundamental accumulation cycle is over, the demand is started, and pay attention to the landing
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that aluminum companies should purchase on demand and should not overstock; Smelters choose the opportunity to sell hedging
.
