Aluminum price volatility is slightly stronger

On the macro front, the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 475,000 in February, higher than the expected 375,000, and the labor market continued to ease and improve, but due to the uncertainty of the situation in Ukraine, Powell expressed support for a 25 basis point rate hike in March, and if inflation remains high, he will not rule out raising interest rates in the future
.
The Fed's flexibility to adjust its interest rate hike policy has eased pressure on the broader and stock markets
.

On the supply and demand side, the unresolved situation in Ukraine has raised concerns about aluminum ingot supply and liquidity, as well as Russian natural gas
, on which the EU relies heavily.
A few days ago, Rusal said that it would shut down the production of Ukraine's Nikolave alumina plant, but it would not have an immediate impact on
its electrolytic aluminum smelter.
According to agency estimates, Ukraine's Nikolave has an annual production capacity of 1.
7 million tons, accounting for about 21% of Rusal's alumina production, which is converted into about 850,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum
.

In terms of inventories, LME stocks continued to decline to just 809,000 tonnes, with trade premiums and spot premiums remaining high
.
LME aluminum prices reached a new high, and the loss of aluminum imports has expanded to more than 2500 yuan / ton, which has strong upward momentum
for internal metals.

The pace of domestic resumption of production has accelerated, the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia has been basically completed, and production capacity in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other regions has gradually resumed production
.
Among them, Yunnan is expected to complete the recovery
of 1.
2 million tons of production capacity in the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter.
The price of aluminum rose to about 23,000 yuan / ton, spot merchants bought up but did not buy down, and the purchase of bargains in East China increased
.
However, the improvement in demand is still not significant, the South China premium discount continues to be low, and the price difference between South China and East China has shown a discount of 30 yuan / ton
.

Overall, oil prices continue to rise in new energy-driven varieties
.
The strong pattern of overseas aluminum prices, the recovery of domestic supply has accelerated slightly, and the consumer side is gradually approaching the verification period
.