Aluminum price volatility intensifies or will enter a wide range shock stage

On the macro front, the US interest rate hike has been cautious recently, and the market still has doubts
about the June rate hike.
However, the dollar has recently rebounded quickly after falling to around 92, so watch for this price performance
.
Europe, Japan, and China collectively released water, while China was even more easing, and fiscal policy turned loose
.
Under the premise that the government closed its eyes and printed money, the growth rate of credit greatly exceeded the growth rate of M2, and a large amount of money did not enter the real economy, but rushed into the real estate, commodity market and other risk asset fields, pushing up the price of related assets, which was the case with excessive speculation in the futures market in April, and the amount of funds pushed almost all commodities to the collective limit
.

From a fundamental point of view, although the market supply is still obviously tight at present, there is no obvious oversupply problem, but the tightness of supply and demand has begun to enter the process
of gradual turning.
In addition, the traditional half-year small peak season has passed, and the real estate operating rate has declined after gradually entering the summer, and the traditional off-season has gradually arrived
.

Overall, steel and coal prices fell sharply after excessive speculation in the early futures market, and Shanghai aluminum has followed a continuous decline
in early May.
The rally so far this year is expected to come to an end, and it is still difficult to peak in the short term, but May is expected to be a turning point, and the rally has entered a wide range
.
Hulun Aluminum collectively fell back after reaching the important pressure level in the early stage, and the early rally is expected to end and enter the shock
.
Shanghai aluminum is significantly more volatile than Lun aluminum, but it tends to calm
down as short-term market speculation cools.