Aluminum price rebound lacks intrinsic impetus The probability of a sharp upward movement is not large

Today, Lun aluminum opened low and higher, and the LME three-month aluminum Beijing time was reported at 1701.
5 US dollars / ton at 15:00, up 4.
5 US dollars, or 0.
27%,
from the settlement price of the previous trading day.

Last week, aluminum prices showed a pullback to stabilize and rebound trend, although Sino-US relations tend to be tense and affect the market atmosphere, but the US Treasury Secretary said that this month will push more than $1 trillion in subsidies, the European Union finally passed the 750 billion euro recovery fund plan, many countries around the world are constantly introducing fiscal stimulus policies, coupled with the economic data of various countries performing better, aluminum prices maintain a high level of strong shock adjustment
.
As far as the supply and demand of aluminum itself is concerned, the signs of weakening the margin of supply and demand have been reflected, first, the supply side has gradually released production capacity under the stimulation of high profits, and second, the off-season has arrived, and the demand stage has weakened
.
It directly leads to the approaching inflection point of destocking, and the downstream fear of heights just needs to be purchased
.

On the supply side: high profits stimulated the resumption of production, several enterprises resumed production, and three companies planned to put into operation in August; Cost side: alumina prices remain stable, and industry profits remain at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot maintained premium but narrowed the range, while Lun aluminum discount continued to expand; In terms of stocks: LME stocks fell slightly to 1.
648 million tons, down 10,800 tons to 222,500 tons in the previous period, and social bank stocks fell 0.
9 million tons to 689,000 tons
.

At present, although inventories remain low and have not accumulated significantly, spot supply is sufficient and demand is declining, and aluminum prices continue to rebound without internal impetus
.
Considering the great uncertainty of the macro environment and the weakening of supply and demand, it is expected that aluminum prices will eventually weaken, and many profits will be made in operation, and enterprises will seize the opportunity to preserve value to lock in some spot risks
.
In addition, for left-hand trading based on supply and demand research, you can test short at a high price, break the position and add short, and create a new high stop loss
.