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Last week, Shanghai aluminum overall showed a small upward trend, there was a slight correction during the session, but did not fall below the 21500 mark support, as of Friday's close, Shanghai aluminum main 2206 contract closed up at 21920, the weekly cumulative increase of 0.
32%; The aluminum price range narrowed during the week, showing a trend of ups and downs; On the one hand, the overseas turbulent pattern and the Fed's expectation of interest rate hikes have interfered with market sentiment, and macro long and short factors coexist; On the other hand, China's GDP in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, and the economy as a whole is still recovering steadily, which boosted the market's bullish confidence
.
Last week, Lun aluminum was generally stable, intraday aluminum prices were mixed, and the late volatility showed a volatile upward trend, as of Friday, the cumulative increase was 0.
2%; During the week, the Fed's Powell released "hawkish remarks" again, and a 50 basis point rate hike in May may be certain, but the market has some expectations; In addition, the recent outbreak of the second-stage conflict between Russia and Ukraine, overseas supply problems have once again triggered market anxiety, to a certain extent, supporting the price rise; In general, the current overseas geopolitical risks may tend to be long-term, in the context of low inventory superimposed on weak supply expectations, the price of aluminum in the future market still has room to continue to climb, focusing on the range of 3250-3380
.
In terms of market, market arrivals have decreased, electrolytic aluminum stocks have been declining this week, electrolytic aluminum stocks in 8 mainstream consumption areas have gradually approached 1 million tons, and the East China market has limited actual transactions due to poor transportation
.
East China: The landing of the domestic RRR cut news at the beginning of the week promoted aluminum prices upward, spot aluminum prices returned to above the 22,000 mark, but the Russian-Ukrainian war conflict intensified, market sentiment was unstable, aluminum prices gave up part of the gains, under the long and short game, the overall performance of aluminum prices last week first rose and then fell, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum between 21780-21820 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton month-on-month, spot discount 60 yuan / ton
.
South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot with tickets was between 22140-22240 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton from the previous month, and the current price difference between the two aluminum ingots is still about 390 yuan, unchanged from last week; In terms of market transactions, the sentiment of downstream enterprises to receive goods has improved, and the transaction in the South China market is significantly better than that in the East China market
.
In addition, the early aluminum downstream enterprises due to the epidemic due to the lack of actual orders led to weak demand, has improved in recent days, supply and demand side short-term is in continuous repair, multi-angle comprehensive, the domestic aluminum market fundamentals have a good trend, it is expected that the short-term Shanghai aluminum trend will still show shock and stable operation, it is difficult to pull up sharply, the main force continues to pay attention to the 22000 breakthrough, next week spot prices overall or still show an upward trend
.
