Aluminum price material sideways upper pressure is large

Market conditions: At present, the overall supply of the market is still relatively abundant, downstream enterprises are affected by weak orders and high prices in the off-season, and the stock volume is relatively limited, but with the arrival of the peak season, spot transactions may improve, and it is expected that the performance of aluminum prices in September may still be firm, but affected by the unstable macro environment and the resumption or concentration of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the second half of the year, and the upside of aluminum prices is also relatively limited
.

Basis situation: Shanghai A00 aluminum 14290 yuan / ton, compared with 1910 liter water 55 yuan / ton
.
Spot traders reported a premium of 30 yuan / ton, compared with 20 yuan / ton last week, at the central axis level
of the same period in nearly 10 years.
LME aluminum (0-3) reported a discount of $30/ton, slightly expanded from last week, at the central axis level of the same period in nearly five years, and may expand
slightly in early September.
The price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 30 yuan / ton, and the price difference last week is 10 yuan / ton, which is at a slightly high level
in the same period of nearly 10 years.

Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 142,020 tons, down about 3% from last week, and the overall continuation of the destocking trend since mid-April 2018, although the speed of destocking in July slowed down compared with the first half of the year, but based on many factors such as funds, it is expected to continue destocking in early September; Aluminum inventories in the previous period of this week fell by 17,030 tons from last week to 361977 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China was 1.
033 million tons, down 30,000 tons from last week, and the overall social inventory in the past 6 weeks was sorted out in a narrow range; the social inventory of aluminum rods was about 92,500 tons, an increase of about 2% over last week, and the price of aluminum bars and ingots has recovered steadily since August, but it is at a low level in the same period of 5 years, and it is expected that the overall recovery will still be before
early September.
LME stocks were 927,000 tonnes, down about 1% from last week and at their lowest level since 2008
.

Theoretical profit: the theoretical loss of import is 1,000 yuan / ton, and the loss is at the low level of the same period in 5 years; The theoretical production profit margin of electrolytic aluminum fell in the past week, after recovering from mid-June, and is now at a high level in the range of nearly a decade, but it is expected to fall
in the next 2-3 weeks.
The price difference between aluminum rods and aluminum ingots in South China is at the low level of the range in 2010, and the overall consumption situation is general, and it is expected to remain stable in the near future
.
Aluminum theoretical export profit fell slightly in July, currently at the same period in the past four years at the central axis level, the first half of the aluminum export volume is still at the high level in recent years, but in March this year to show a slight downward pattern, is expected to continue in the second half of the year
.

The trend of electrolytic aluminum remained volatile last week, with the main contract closing at 14235
.
The current production reduction logic of Shanghai aluminum is still supported, and the supply reduction is expected to accelerate the short-term aluminum ingot destocking process, but consumption still has no obvious signs of improvement, and the output of aluminum ingots remains low
.
Alumina prices began to rebound this week, but the rebound is not large, the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production further increases the pressure of oversupply of alumina, the profit cycle of the electrolytic aluminum industry will still be maintained, objectively favorable to the launch of new production capacity, and at the same time for the recovery of shutdown capacity also stimulated
.
The market still has expectations for the consumption of gold nine silver ten, and the short-term aluminum price may remain strong under the support of destocking, and the price may continue to fluctuate
at a high level.