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Aluminum prices continued to rebound during the day yesterday and fell slightly overnight
.
Shanghai aluminum intraday gains narrowed, closing up 2.
07%.
The rebound of aluminum prices in the past two days is mainly caused by the recovery of market sentiment, and the fundamentals do not support the continuous upward momentum of aluminum prices
.
On the macro front, market sentiment continued to repair, superimposed LME aluminum stocks dematerialized to about 320,000 tons, and the recovery of London aluminum drove the rebound
of Shanghai aluminum.
Macro sentiment has improved, expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have fallen, and although the probability of continuing to raise interest rates by 75 basis points is relatively high, the recovery of the latest June retail sales data has made the market rethink
the pace of recession.
In addition, the news of the domestic real estate policy on the suspension of the repayment of unfinished buildings and the pilot of some real estate projects to public rental housing stimulated market sentiment, and the overnight atmosphere of industrial products continued to improve, and non-ferrous metals were running
strongly.
On the supply side, there is still room for growth in Yunnan, Guangxi, Gansu and other regions, supply pressure is still there, and in some areas due to insufficient power in high temperature weather, there may be subsequent load reduction production
.
In terms of inventory, due to the recent low price of aluminum, downstream procurement sentiment has improved, and social inventory has maintained decomposition
.
As aluminum prices continue to fall, the relationship between cost and price has begun to attract attention, and the sharp decline in crude oil in the previous stage has made the market worried about cost loosening, but US President Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia has yielded nothing, crude oil prices have rebounded sharply, and the logic of cost collapse has been falsified
in the short term.
The domestic supply side continues to rise, although aluminum prices have fallen to the cost line, and some refineries have even lost money, but due to the large profits of aluminum plants in previous years, companies may not choose to reduce production in the short term, and supply pressure still exists
.
Overall, low inventories combined with the recent repair of macro sentiment have given aluminum prices a certain degree of support, but medium and long-term aluminum prices are still subject to supply pressure, and unilateral neutral treatment
is recommended.
