Aluminum opens low and goes high, and the short-term trend continues to fluctuate

Macro: The U.
S.
election is raging, and Nevada has become a key swing state in the fierce competition between the two sides, and Trump must win the state
if he wants to be elected.
The dollar index continued to weaken yesterday, supporting commodity prices, and analysts believe that the downward trend of the dollar index will continue for some time in the future; In terms of the epidemic, the epidemic situation in Europe is still high-pressure, and many countries have tightened epidemic prevention measures, and the macro perspective is generally intertwined with long and short
.

On the supply side: data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that primary aluminum production in September increased by 7.
9% year-on-year, with a record average daily output; Alumina prices were subdued
with alumina production of 6.
56 million mt in September, the second consecutive month of record highs.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.

The profit of supply-side smelters remained high, the industry's production capacity was further released in October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise, and the supply side was weak
in the fourth quarter.

Cost side: The cost of alumina continued to rebound slightly to 12,920 yuan on Friday, and the profit of alumina production remained at a high level
.
In terms of water premium: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot water premium is adjusted by 60 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton
.
Lun aluminum premium to $
6.
50 discount.

In terms of stocks: LME stocks dematerialized 6,075 tons to 1,444,000 tons yesterday, compared with the statistics of November 2 to 659,000 tons, and the previous stock decreased by 4,431 tons to 233,300 tons last week,
according to the data on November 2.
On the whole, the production of electrolytic aluminum has not increased significantly, and the destocking of the social library continues, and the fundamentals are acceptable
.

Overall, the global manufacturing industry recovered strongly, aluminum fundamentals improved, and the market had better expectations for more stimulus policies after the election, and the overall macro sentiment was better
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will continue to fluctuate, and the strategy is mainly
wait-and-see.