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Market review, last week's futures aluminum prices fell sharply, mainly due to the US trade war with China and the sharp fall in the exchange rate of emerging economies caused by the market risk aversion heating up, and the domestic aluminum market consumption continued to not improve also hit market confidence
.
Futures aluminum prices fell for several days, the main 1811 contract fell from a high of 15,000 yuan to below 14,700 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14,655 yuan / ton, down 2.
07%
for a week.
Externally, weaker exchange rates in emerging economies pushed the dollar stronger, which in turn weighed on metal prices, while U.
S.
trade war fears continued to ferment.
The three-month aluminum price on the London Stock Exchange fell from above $2,100/ton to $2,050
/ton.
It later rebounded due to the failure of labor negotiations at Alcoa's Australian alumina plant and the continuation of the strike, but it remained below
$2,100/ton.
In terms of the market, although domestic consumption is still low, the peak season is still expected, and the enthusiasm for downstream receiving goods rebounds when aluminum prices fall, and the decline in inventories is also reflected
.
At the beginning of the week, the mainstream transaction price in East China was 14700-14750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in South China market was around 14850 yuan / ton
.
After that, the price gradually fell, the East China market fell to 14,600 yuan / ton, and South China fell to 14,750 yuan / ton
.
In terms of inventory, aluminum stocks on the London Stock Exchange fell by 8,993 tons during the week, and the total inventory fell to 1.
062 million tons
.
Warehouse receipts increased by 6,550 tonnes to 297,000 tonnes
.
The proportion of warehouse receipts cancelled rebounded to 27.
9%.
Aluminum ingot inventories in the previous period fell by 8,785 tons to 873,000 tons
in the week.
In terms of regions, inventories in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangdong fell significantly, falling by 4867 tons, 4284 tons and 3512 tons respectively in one week; Inventories in Tianjin and Chongqing increased by 2,690 tonnes and 2,078 tonnes respectively, while inventories in other regions changed relatively little
.
Warehouse receipts decreased by 16,900 tonnes to 701,000 tonnes
during the week.
Although the current consumption has not improved, the peak season is still expected, the willingness to bargain reserve the downstream has increased, and the conversion rate of aluminum water to aluminum rods in aluminum plants is still high, resulting in another decline in aluminum ingot inventory
.
Market outlook, affected by the reduction of production of some aluminum plants, the recovery of domestic operating capacity has further slowed down, and the rise in output has also slowed down
.
At present
, it is difficult for domestic consumption to improve significantly.
The market is weak in both supply and demand
.
However, the recovery of consumption in the peak season can still be expected
.
The negative sentiment caused by macro factors such as the current trade war and concerns about global economic growth slowdown has a greater impact on the market, and there is still a certain inhibitory effect
on aluminum prices in the short term.
However, the shortage of alumina supply is still difficult to solve, and its price will inevitably rise again, which will further promote the cost and the stronger the support for the price, so the later aluminum prices still have room
to rise.
