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On Thursday, the main monthly 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 13,790 yuan, with an intraday high of 13,890 yuan and a low of 13,785 yuan, and closed at 13,885 at the end of the day, up 30 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
There are many macro bearish factors, coupled with the continued sluggish demand for aluminum market under off-season consumption, limiting the rebound of aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly during the day, and the market will remain on the sidelines
for the time being.
On the macro front, Trump announced that the United States will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods from September 1, China said that it will not rule out tariffs on imports for the purchase of newly traded US agricultural products after August 3, and relevant Chinese enterprises have suspended the purchase of US agricultural products, and Sino-US trade frictions have escalated; However, the escalation of trade frictions has increased the possibility of another interest rate cut by the Fed in September, and the central government will continue to implement countercyclical adjustments
against the backdrop of increased downward pressure on the economy.
In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks 1004225, down 5,700 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipt in the previous period was 140415 tons, down 201 tons
from the previous trading day.
In terms of spot, the spot trading price of aluminum ingots in Shanghai and Wuxi is concentrated between 13890-13900 yuan / ton, the opposite plate premium is 20-30 yuan / ton, and the market price in Hangzhou is between
13900-13920 yuan / ton.
On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises accelerate the launch and resumption of production capacity under the high profit level, and in the near future, after the continuous improvement of electrolytic aluminum profits, the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has accelerated slightly, and supply pressure will gradually appear; On the demand side, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum on August 8 was 1.
041 million tons, a slight increase of 10,000 tons compared with August 1, and the off-season inventory continued to accumulate, and the cost side boosted alumina after the introduction of the filial piety production restriction plan
.
It is reported that Shanxi Xiaoyi Second Youth Conference implemented a 50% production limit on local alumina enterprises during the meeting, resulting in an estimated loss of 78,000 tons of output, which supported the low price of alumina
.
The latest inventory data shows that electrolytic aluminum accumulates to a small extent, in line with expectations, and smooth destocking is expected to open
in late August.
Despite the improvement in industry profits, production was limited in the third quarter, resulting in peak season supply being smaller than it, providing upward momentum
for aluminum prices.
