Aluminum high open fell expected short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by March 18, and a further 50 basis points in the second quarter, for a total of 100 basis points
.
(2) In January 2020, the prosperity index was 28.
5, up 1.
4 points from the previous month, still in the cold range; the leading synthetic index was 47.
1, down 2.
8 points
from the previous month.
(3) At the end of January, China's imported bauxite inventory was about 26.
6 million tons, down 1.
74% month-on-month and down 18.
64% year-on-year, and the number of days of inventory dematerialization was 96 days, unchanged
from the previous month.

Spot analysis: On March 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13120-13160 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13140 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 90 yuan / ton
.
SMM reported that traders and buyers traded more actively in the morning, and the pick-up was acceptable, and the shipments of the holders converged after 10:30, but the enthusiasm of the middlemen to receive the goods was not reduced, and the market trading showed a priceless situation, but at this time, the market trading heat became weak, the actual transaction was not much, and the downstream intraday on-demand goods were mainly taken, and the receiving status was not as good as the previous day
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 219707 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 2,770 tons, an increase of 8 consecutive days; On March 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1071875 tons, a daily decrease of 10,275 tons, a 14-day
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract were 83298 lots, minus 688 lots per day, short positions were 96443 lots, daily increase of 1932 lots, net short positions were 13145 lots, daily minus 1244 lots, more short positions increased, net space decreased
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2004 opened high and fell back in
2004.
The global epidemic is spreading, which has increased market concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the resumption of work of downstream processing enterprises is slow, coupled with the fact that domestic automobile transportation has not fully recovered, Shanghai aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate recently, and Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased for 8 weeks to 439087 tons, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March have heated up, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the second quarter, the US dollar is under pressure to the downside, and global monetary easing expectations have strengthened; At the same time, the epidemic situation in China has improved, and as transportation gradually resumes, downstream procurement will continue to increase, which is conducive to easing the current inventory pressure; In addition, the Chinese government plans to expand infrastructure investment, which is conducive to the repair of demand and strengthens the support for aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, traders and buyers and sellers in the morning trading are more active, the delivery is acceptable, after 10:30 the carrier shipments converge, but the enthusiasm of the middlemen to receive goods has not decreased, at this time the market trading heat has become weak, the actual transaction is not much, the downstream intraday on-demand goods are the mainstay, the receiving state is not as good as the previous day
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, and the mainstream long position reduction was large, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.