Aluminum continues to strengthen, and the pressure to release new production capacity is not large

The rise in this round of aluminum prices is the result of multiple factors, and the rise in the first week after the holiday is more driven by inflation expectations, which is manifested as copper leading the rise and other metals following up, but after the supply disturbance in Inner Mongolia this week, aluminum began to follow its own fundamental logic
.
In the short term, the pressure to release new production capacity is not large, the consumption season is coming, the total domestic inventory is at a low level, and the aluminum fundamentals are solid
.

In the long term, the supply-side reform limits the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity to around 44 million tons, and the current operating capacity has reached nearly 40 million tons, limiting the long-term supply growth
.

In the context of carbon neutrality, aluminum, as an important material for lightweight replacement, has great promise in the field of new energy, not to mention the recovery of external demand driven by the US real estate boom and the blessing of the Democratic government's preference for new energy, from the perspective of the large cycle, the matching of supply and demand of aluminum has begun to reverse
.

After Shanghai aluminum broke through the high point of supply reform, the upside opened up, and the contradictions that need to be paid attention to in the future market mainly focus on the actual impact of the energy consumption restriction in Inner Mongolia on the existing production capacity and new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, as well as the effective transmission
of US fiscal stimulus to demand.