Aluminum continues to fall slightly below with a reference to around 13700

On the macro front, the two heads of state agreed to restart economic and trade consultations between the two countries, and the United States said that it would not impose new tariffs
on Chinese exports.
The Chicago PMI in June fell below the boom-and-bust line, and the Atlanta Fed, St.
Louis Fed, and New York Fed have lowered their GDP growth forecasts for the second quarter, and the United States still has the possibility
of economic downturn.
Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in June was unchanged from May, still below the boom and bust line, and the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry is still there
.

From the perspective of the industry, the previously announced electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to fall, although it is still in the destocking cycle, but the decline has narrowed, and the price of alumina is weak, the support for aluminum prices is weak, the off-season is coming aluminum downstream consumption expectations are empty, the survey shows that the operating rate of aluminum plate strip has declined, and the downstream weakening situation has put pressure on aluminum prices
.

Industry News:

1.
Union workers at the ABI (Aluminerie de Becancour) aluminum smelter in Quebec, Canada, will meet next Tuesday at 9 a.
m.
ET to discuss and vote on Alcoa's final proposal
to end the plant's 18-month shutdown, Alcoa officials said Thursday 。 Alcoa on Wednesday made a so-called "final offer" and asked United Steelworkers Local to make a decision by July 5 on the $9,700 offer, either accepting or rejecting
.
If accepted, it will restart and resume work on July 26; If refused, Alcoa will immediately start the process
of "shutting down the smelter".

2.
On June 26, Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, met with visiting Guinean Presidential Office Minister Kabah in the country, and the two sides exchanged in-depth views
on cooperation projects in the fields of bauxite development and infrastructure construction.

Summary: Last Friday, the Shanghai aluminum shock weakened, and the main contract closed at 13795
.
Last week, aluminum ingot inventories accumulated for the first time, and the end of destocking verified the weakening of electrolytic aluminum fundamentals
.
The price of alumina on the cost side has fallen rapidly, the price has fallen back to the 2800 line, in line with the previous judgment, the price continues to have limited downward space, alumina in the case of new and resumed production capacity at home and abroad, the fundamentals are weak, short-term or show a bottom shock
.
Overall, in the case of cost decline and marginal weakening of fundamentals, aluminum prices are difficult to rebound, prices are expected to continue to be weak, and short orders are recommended to continue to hold
.