Aggregated MDI gathers upward momentum

With the return of the Spring Festival, the negative factors of the resumption of production of the MDI plant of Wanhua Chemical's Ningbo plant have been digested by the market, and many manufacturers have raised their listing prices, making the calm aggregated MDI market turbulent again
.

Industry insiders believe that with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics coming to an end, downstream demand will gradually pick up, which will form a boost for the MDI market

Enterprise listing price hike

Enterprise listing price increase Enterprise listing price increase

After the Spring Festival, the domestic aggregated MDI market showed a pattern of "hot in the north and cold in the south"
.

The trading session of the northern market opened earlier, and the atmosphere of shouting was strong; the atmosphere of the East China and South China markets was warm, and traders had few quotations

From the current point of view, the latest price of the aggregated MDI distribution market of a factory in the north has been raised to 21,800 yuan (ton price, the same below); Shanghai Huntsman's listing price of aggregated MDI in February was 23,000 yuan, an increase of 1,500 yuan from the previous month; a factory in Shanghai The listing price of aggregated MDI in February was 23,500 yuan, which was also increased by 1,500 yuan from the previous month
.

The main supplier factories led the price increase slightly, and the mentality of the industry changed

Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, said that the listing price of polymerized MDI companies has increased, and the downstream industries of the terminal have resumed work one after another, and the concentration of downstream inquiries and buying will be beneficial to the raw material market.
space
.

Raw material support is acceptable

Raw material support is acceptable Raw material support is acceptable

After the Spring Festival, the aniline market, the raw material for polymerizing MDI, rose sharply due to tight supply and strong cost support
.

After the Spring Festival, the pure benzene market rose strongly and then fell, but it was still at a high level, supported by the cost of aniline
.

In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises are still on holiday, the demand for raw materials is reduced, and the intention to stock up is low

Looking at demand, the price of rubber additives is also on the rise
.

The accelerator market has just recovered, and downstream tire companies are gradually resuming production.

　　"One 10,000-ton/year aniline plant in Jinling, Shandong was shut down on February 10, and a 100,000-ton/year plant was shut down on February 13.
In addition, the Shanxi Tianji plant was half-loaded, and the spot supply of aniline in the north was low.

The aniline enterprises in East China mainly execute orders, the spot tradeable volume is small, and the domestic supply is relatively tight
.

While the downstream demand will gradually pick up, it is expected that the domestic aniline market will rise, and the price is expected to return to a high of 14,000 yuan, which will be given to the aggregated MDI market.
Supported by cost

　　Demand is gradually improving

Demand gradually improves Demand gradually improves

　　As the downstream of aggregated MDI, the annual production and sales of automobiles in 2021 will be 26.
082 million and 26.
275 million respectively, an increase of 3.
4% and 3.
8% over the previous year, ending the three-year consecutive decline since 2018
.

From the perspective of 2022, China's automobile industry may enter a period of stable development, which is expected to form a driving effect on the raw material polymerization MDI market

　　According to forecasts, the total car sales in China may be stable at around 22 million in 2022, and the car ownership is expected to reach 324 million, an increase of about 7.
3%
.

The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is further improved, and the number of vehicles is expected to exceed 11 million, an increase of 40.

　　From the specific downstream point of view, the raw material propylene oxide market has been actively increased, supporting the rise in the price of rigid foam polyether
.
However, the terminal industry has limited start-up before the Lantern Festival.
Although the price of rigid foam polyether has increased, some companies may increase their positions by an appropriate amount, but the actual chasing and follow-up atmosphere is gradually weakening.
At present, there are few enterprises that have resumed work and production, and there is very little substantial consumption.
The main factories of hard bubbles have weaker price increases than soft bubbles
.

　　Pan Jinsong said that although the downstream and terminal enterprises are still closed, after the Lantern Festival, the demand will gradually pick up, which will be a benefit that cannot be underestimated for the upstream raw material polymerization of MDI
.