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On the first day after the holiday, the Shanghai copper main contract 1612 contract bottomed out, closing at 37650 yuan / ton at the end of the day, only down 0.
16% from the pre-holiday close, indicating that its willingness to fall is weak, partly driven by the rise of surrounding commodities, of which the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 3.
21%.
At present, Shanghai copper is effectively running above the moving average group, and the upward pattern still exists
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market turned into a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between the Shanghai copper 1611 contract and the 1612 contract was 20 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Asian market London copper oscillation slightly rose, of which 3 months London copper flat to 4800 US dollars / ton, the current London copper effectively running above the moving average group, its rebound pattern maintained well, the upper rebound resistance focus on 5000 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on October 6, the position of London copper was 322,000 lots, a weekly decrease of 7,045 lots, indicating that when London copper fell, long and short positions were reduced and left the market, and the popularity of the copper market was very low
.
Macro: The U.
S.
dollar index in Asia edged higher to around 96.
7, partly weighed down by the pound's plunge as the risk of Brexit climbed
.
The United States, Hong Kong and Japan were closed on Monday, lacking key data guidance during the day, and the market trading in the evening may be light
.
In terms of industry, it is reported that Indonesia's free port and the union have finally reached an agreement that Grasberg copper-gold mine production will resume, after the mine has been on strike for 10 days
.
In terms of market: on October 10, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 130 yuan / ton - 180 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 37660-37700 yuan / ton
.
During the festival, a large number of imported copper arrived into storage, resulting in the morning market holders generally using tentative quotations, holding more goods at high prices, small price differences between brands, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment
.
After entering the second trading session, market trading returned to flat, and the price difference between brands widened
.
The overall supply is relatively abundant
.
Most of the market is skeptical about the firm strength of spot premiums due to close delivery, waiting for delivery premiums to decline before entering the market
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1612 contract oscillated to stabilize to 37650 yuan / ton, indicating that even if domestic loan restrictions and purchase restrictions are frequent, the short-term pressure on copper prices is relatively limited, because the strong rise in crude oil futures during the holiday period partially improved market sentiment, technically Shanghai copper maintained a rebound pattern
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1612 contract can be cautiously held above 37250 yuan, with a target of 38500 yuan / ton
.
