After the coal price breaks through the thousand yuan mark, the "coal hyper-crazy" phenomenon may come to an end

As coal prices rise and fall, whether the phenomenon of "coal hyper-crazy" ends has become the focus of the market.

Affected by the cold wave weather and economic recovery, domestic coal demand has increased more than expected since January.

Compared with pit mouth and port coal market prices maintained at a high level, thermal coal futures prices have fallen first.

"Futures prices may fluctuate and fall, but this price is easily affected by policies.

The contradiction between supply and demand eases

The market view believes that with the decline in daily consumption, terminal inventory at the port has stabilized and rebounded, downstream purchases have been delayed, willingness to receive goods at high prices has continued to fall, market sentiment has further weakened, traders are eager to cut prices for shipments, and some sellers have begun to sell at low prices.

Fengkuang Coal Logistics data shows that as of the week of January 22, the total inventory of Bohai Rim ports dropped from 16.

Recently, the temperature has gradually warmed up, the daily consumption of electricity and coal has continued to fall, the market replenishment has weakened, and the year is approaching, the non-electricity-consuming coal industry is about to suspend production, and coal demand has shown signs of decline.

On January 23, Li Tao, a researcher at the Cinda Futures Research Institute, analyzed to a Times Weekly reporter: “The early coal price has risen too sharply, and the spot traded at high prices is also very limited.

Many industry insiders also confirmed to the Times Weekly reporter that, as the most important factor affecting coal prices, the situation of supply and demand may improve in the short term, mainly due to the off-season of thermal coal consumption before and after the Spring Festival.

In addition, the possibility of full liberalization of imported coal is also an important factor in curbing the skyrocketing coal price.

The China Coal Industry Association analyzed that in order to balance the domestic coal supply and demand situation, relevant departments will appropriately increase coal imports to ensure domestic demand for permanent coal for power generation and heating.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China on January 14, China imported 39.
075 million tons of coal and lignite in December 2020, an increase of 1309.
63% year-on-year.

my country's thermal coal imports account for about 9% of total demand.
"Especially at the beginning of the year, the monthly import volume was about 35 million tons, and the monthly import volume increased or decreased from 10-15 million tons.
This 10-15 million tons is about 3%-5% of the monthly coal consumption of 300 million tons.
, This has a great impact on the price of thermal coal under the current tight supply and demand.
" Li Tao said.

　　"Imported coal is an important supplement to the domestic coal market.
" Success told Times Weekly reporters that, especially in the current situation of tight market supply due to multiple factors, speeding up coal imports will help promote the rational return of coal prices, while normal coal prices It should be in the green interval determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, which is conducive to the sustainable development of upstream and downstream industries.

　　Coal prices may return to rationality

　　The data shows that as of December 31, 2020, the average monthly price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qingang was 662 yuan/ton, and as of January 23, 2021, the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qingang was 946 yuan/ton.
Tons, 284 yuan higher than the average price last month.

　　"From a fundamental point of view, the current reasonable price of thermal coal should be between 540-620 yuan per ton.
" Li Tao told Times Weekly that it is unlikely that the demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate in 2021, so The short-term factors supporting the high spot price will gradually disintegrate with the end of the Spring Festival, and the main contract for thermal coal still has room for at least 100 yuan to fall.

　　According to data from today's think tank China Coal Big Data Center, the number of ships at anchorages in Bohai Rim ports is still increasing, and the number of anchorages and anticipated ships at major ports such as Qinhuangdao remains around 70-80.

　　"Although the absolute amount of downstream demand is still at a high level, the enthusiasm for downstream goods has been marginally reduced.
" Li Tao believes that the overall level of coal supply will be generally stable, and the price of electric coal in northern ports will continue to be high.

　　Success also believes that coal prices will continue to pull back.
"On the one hand, demand expectations have changed.
After the Spring Festival in February, coal consumption demand in the power sector has fallen, and downstream procurement enthusiasm and expectations for coal prices have declined; on the other hand, from the supply side, according to the past regulatory rhythm, The import coal quota was liberalized at the beginning of the year, and the increase in coal imports can effectively buffer the current tight supply situation.
" Success said.

　　According to estimates by Huachuang Securities Research Report, coal prices broke through the 1,000 yuan mark in early 2021, and it took less than a year from the staged low in 2020 to the highest point in history.
It is estimated that Qingang 5,500 kcal thermal coal price center It will rise from 590 yuan/ton to 620 yuan/ton.

　　"In the next few years, the growth rate of coal production capacity will remain below 2%.
" Li Tao believes that the economic growth rate is still maintained at a moderate level, excluding the weakening of coal consumption of thermal power by new energy sources (photovoltaic, wind power, nuclear power), and With the implementation of the carbon neutral policy, the supply and demand of thermal coal will still be slightly tight in the next few years, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward.

Transfer from: Times Weekly