After getting rid of the shock range, we are optimistic about the upside of the aluminum market in the later period

Recently, Shanghai aluminum increased its position to maintain a strong rhythm of operation, and the futures price closed on the upper edge of the range around 14535, getting rid of the shock range after optimistic about the upside of the market, more ideas unchanged
.
With uncertainties such as the epidemic in Europe and the United States gradually digested by the market, market confidence has gradually climbed under the impetus of the recovery of the global stock market, and Lun aluminum has exceeded the $1800 mark
.

At the macro level, Trump and the Republican Party have disagreed over stimulus negotiations, urging a large-scale deal in a tweet, but it is reported that it will be difficult to win support within the Republican Party
.

In terms of supply, with the recovery of aluminum prices, aluminum companies have maintained a high profit state for nearly half a year since April, which has accelerated the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and 1 million tons of production capacity will be released in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on aluminum prices on the supply side has increased
significantly.

In terms of demand, real estate is that the overall demand for aluminum remains stable, automobiles benefit from the recovery of demand, and it is difficult for aluminum exports to improve
significantly.
Therefore, the marginal increase in demand in the fourth quarter was limited
.

In general, due to the acceleration of the pace of supply-side release and the slowdown of the recovery rhythm of the demand-side peak season, and after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the fourth quarter, downstream demand will turn into the traditional off-season, and aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
Aluminum prices are running to a relatively high level, and under the gradual weakening of macro expectations and low inventory support, it is recommended to enter the short
test with an appropriate amount.