Afghanistan "changes the sky"!

Afghanistan changed overnight, and the government collapsed in a Guinness World Record
.
Over the years, the US war in Afghanistan has totaled more than 172,390 casualties, costing a total of 10.
5 trillion US dollars, and it took only 20 days to return to the pre-liberation period
.
The withdrawal of the U.
S.
military is ultimately due to the rise of shale oil and the continuous decline of oil in the global energy structure, which has made the United States lose its interest in betting on oil resources in the Middle East.
To put it bluntly, crude oil is not as valuable as it used to be
.
Once the Afghan government loses the support of the United States, it will collapse quickly
.

Under normal circumstances, the diffuse smoke of gunpowder will make the geopolitical situation tense and intensify the risk aversion
.
As the saying goes, "the sound of a cannon is worth 10,000 taels of gold.
" However, gold has not fluctuated significantly.
In principle, crude oil, which has the greatest impact, is also dead.
The global capital market does not seem to have much reaction to this
.
The main reason is that Afghanistan's economy is very insignificant, for example, Afghanistan consumes only 30,000 barrels of oil per day
.
Not only that, Afghanistan itself doesn't actually have any oil, it's just close to countries with huge crude oil resources
.
So there is no impact on the price of crude oil
.

So the question is, under what circumstances will the war have an impact on the crude oil market?

1.
Local wars between major oil-producing countries or local wars involving U.
S.
ground forces
.
In this case, the conflict has usually escalated into a real war, rather than a simple armed friction, which will create a supply disruption risk for the entire market, which in turn will significantly push up oil prices
.
A more representative example is the Iran-Iraq war in 1990, when Iraq and Iran went to war, and a large amount of crude oil production was forced to be interrupted
.
The situation in Afghanistan this time is neither a local war in major oil-producing countries nor the involvement of US ground forces, so the impact on oil prices is naturally minimal
.

2.
Important oil facilities were attacked and suffered significant losses
.
The most recent example is that on September 14, 2019, Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing plant and an oil field were attacked by a swarm of 10 drones by the Houthis, causing fire and some equipment damage
.
The Abqaiq plant is the world's largest integrated oil processing center, processing and transferring nearly 70% of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production.
Crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the world's largest oil field, Ghawar, also passes through here before going to the export terminal
.
Because the core oil facilities are usually closely guarded, the attack is difficult to succeed.
Therefore, after the attack, the international oil price rose instantly and the rise lasted for nearly a week
.

3.
Tankers were attacked and closed key straits
.
Looking back at the history of recent years, it is not uncommon for oil tankers to be attacked, but the cases that can really have a significant impact on international oil prices are relatively limited
.
Those that have a more serious impact on oil prices have been marked in red in the figure below
.

To sum up, it is not that the oil prices in the Middle East and surrounding countries will rise sharply as soon as they open fire.
The logic and reasons behind this need to be analyzed and treated rationally
.
In addition, the U.
S.
occupation of Afghanistan for many years has been fruitless.
Biden even called it a meaningless war, leaving only the sentence "Afghan government forces should fight for their own foreign countries" and withdrew
.
This shows how much commitment the United States has made in the first place.
Once the situation is not favorable for the United States, it is likely to slap the buttocks and ignore it
.