Affected by the news of the trade war, spot aluminum prices fluctuated and adjusted

Market situation: electrolytic aluminum profit repair, electrolytic aluminum production reduction scale is difficult to expand and new production capacity will be released as scheduled, the medium line of domestic smelting supply capacity is gradually rising, while alumina and other costs in the second half of the year may still have a risk of decline, aluminum prices above 14000 pressure increased significantly, especially above 14400, but at present, Inner Mongolia and other production areas of primary aluminum production growth rate slowly superimposed on the proportion of aluminum water increased, resulting in tight supply of aluminum ingots in the market, and downstream orders in March are better, especially aluminum for bicycles and building formwork, Social inventories are still likely to fall to around
120 in the second quarter.

Basis situation: Shanghai A00 aluminum 14170 yuan / ton, compared with 1907 liters of water 5 yuan / ton
.
Spot merchants reported a premium of 30 yuan / ton, flat water last week, at the high level of the same period in nearly 10 years, and the probability of holding steady or falling back in the next 1-2 weeks is large
.
LME aluminum (0-3) reported a discount of $31.
25 / ton, compared with a discount of $14 / ton last week, at the low level of the central axis in the same period of nearly 10 years
.
The price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 70 yuan / ton, which is generally stable at the end of April, and is currently at the low level
of the range in 2012.

Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 353553 tons, down about 8% from last week, continuing the downward trend in mid-March, which is now basically close to the level of the same period in 2017, and is expected to remain in the destocking cycle in May but the intensity may gradually narrow; Aluminum inventories in the previous period of this week fell by 20,545 tons from last week to 601362 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China is 140
.
90,000 tons, down 610,000 tons from last week, domestic March to May is a period of recovery in consumption, downstream new orders in April are growing steadily, while aluminum plants generally increased the proportion of aluminum water used to reduce the proportion of ingots, coupled with some aluminum plants such as Baihe, Western Hydropower and other new production capacity concentrated in the third quarter, the current increment is limited, May destocking mode is expected to continue, but the decline may narrow.

LME inventories were 1266575 tonnes, up about 18% from last week, a slight recovery in the past two weeks, but still at their lowest level
since 2008.

From a macro perspective, there are more economic data this week, the overall US data is good, China's export data is not good, but the currency data continues to release water
.
An important disturbance this week is the progress of Sino-US trade war negotiations, the United States announced another tariff increase to 25%, and China actively continued negotiations
.
Industrial prices were affected and rebounded
.
Spot inventories continued to decline
rapidly.
From the perspective of futures, Shanghai's recent rally is intact, and it continues to be strong
after short-term adjustment.
Next week's aluminum price shock adjustment, for reference
only.