Affected by macro sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is facing short-term adjustment

On the first day after the New Year's Day, the electrolytic aluminum society Kureku reached 32,000 tons, consumption weakened in the short term, and the fundamental pressure made the aluminum price weaker after the opening, but due to the excellent performance of the domestic stock market after the holiday, the Shanghai Index stood at 3,500 points for the first time in three years, effectively boosting the market macro sentiment, making the aluminum price in the afternoon weakened and rose back and recovered the midday decline
.
Subsequently, based on the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in January and February, aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile downward trend
.

In terms of consumption, the start of aluminum processing enterprises fell slightly by 0.
3 percentage points last week, in addition to the heavily polluted weather and the slight expansion of the impact of production restrictions caused by various gas and power restrictions, the direct impact on the start of construction, the reduction in actual transactions caused by enterprise settlement at the end of the year also made the new orders slightly reduced
last week.

On the whole, the performance of the consumption side was relatively smooth and declining, mainly because the seasonal consumption season gradually came to an end
.
However, it is worth noting that, on the one hand, various production restrictions are coming to an end in January, and the restrictions on processing enterprises will be restored; On the other hand, because the Spring Festival this year is located in mid-February, some enterprises said that they will work overtime in January, and there may be a certain number of orders in advance, so that the weakening effect of consumption is not significant
.
Therefore, it is expected that downstream construction may pick up
slightly after the holiday.

Boosted by the domestic stock market, the non-ferrous performance is once again prominent, indicating that the pro-cyclical impact is still relatively deep
.
However, the country is facing the Spring Festival factor, the supply and demand relationship is in excess period under the slowdown in demand, and after the Spring Festival is the accumulation cycle, so for Shanghai aluminum, the willingness to actively pull up is reduced, and the macro sentiment is more affected before the Spring Festival
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will face adjustment in the short term, and the operation will be
dominated by high test shorts.