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Recently, the global energy shortage problem began to be transmitted to non-ferrous metals, and Lun aluminum rose sharply, and Shanghai aluminum also touched 24,700 yuan / ton
last week.
On the macro front, November has not yet arrived, and expectations of tapering have limited
impact on the current market until Taper's boots fall.
From a fundamental point of view, the problem of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply restrictions is difficult to solve, Qinghai, Ningxia and Gansu have news of production cuts or power cuts, but the specific implementation needs to be followed
.
In the downstream, power cuts in Guangdong and other places have eased slightly, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions may become
stricter.
New orders are weak, terminal consumption is weak, and the demand side of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to be optimistic
.
The cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to move upward, but because of the huge profits, the rise in raw materials and electricity prices is difficult to cause losses for aluminum companies, and the impact of aluminum prices is limited
.
In addition, the news that Indonesia plans to cancel bauxite exports has not had a big impact
on aluminum prices.
In terms of inventory, the domestic social treasury continued to accumulate, with the SMM social treasury increasing by 225,000 tons to 887,000 tons as of October 14; LME aluminum ingots quickly destocked and continued to decline by more than 50,000 tons
last week.
At present, electrolytic aluminum is strong outside and weak inside, although domestic accumulation, but the inventory value is still at a relatively low historical level, under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the lower support still exists
.
In addition, the sharp destocking of overseas and concerns about energy shortage may continue to push Lun Aluminum upward, thereby driving the price
of Shanghai Aluminum.
At present, the aluminum price is at a high level, and the range of volatility may expand, and it is recommended to do a good job in position management
.
Strategy: It is expected to run in oscillations between 23500-25000, the previous long order can continue to hold, the dip can be light and long, but it is not recommended to chase higher
.
