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In 2020, the price of alumina showed a volatile pattern, but the fluctuation range and trend characteristics were weaker than in
2019.
Affected by the trend decline that began in the fourth quarter of 2019, the price of alumina fell near the cost line of domestic mainstream enterprises in early 2020
.
Under the influence of high supply elasticity, the active compression of industry operating capacity has reduced short-term surplus expectations
.
Under the condition that domestic electrolytic aluminum demand continued to grow, alumina prices began to stabilize and rebound in January, and then affected by the concentrated outbreak of new crown pneumonia in February, the phased mismatch of supply and demand structure made alumina prices continue to rebound
.
The disruption of logistics and transportation caused by the upgrade of epidemic prevention policies has contributed to the increase
in regional prices.
However, with the rapid decline in aluminum prices in March, alumina prices fell
due to poor demand in the case of passive expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.
The continued sluggish terminal demand in April caused alumina prices to continue their downward trend, and after falling below the cash cost line of mainstream enterprises in some regions, the willingness of enterprises to compress production capacity rose significantly
.
With the amplification of the sales restriction sentiment of some production enterprises, the price of alumina finally bottomed out.
And in the process of aluminum prices continuing to rise, with the continuous improvement of the cash flow of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the willingness of enterprises to take the initiative to replenish storage has also recovered, and under the support of just demand for volume procurement, alumina prices follow the price of aluminum due to the improvement of transaction liquidity
.
In early July, the news of the implementation of flexible production by two alumina companies under Chalco once again stimulated market nerves, and the price of alumina rose
violently again under the active intervention of speculative market-making forces.
But with the rapid repair of industry profits, the rapid restart of idle capacity has again put pressure on alumina prices
.
The news of the accident at Hydro's Brazilian alumina plant in August once boosted the market, but when some companies took the opportunity to expand production capacity and dilute production costs, the actual output rose against the trend, causing alumina prices to return to a weak adjustment trend and continue to this day
.
