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Since March, the acrylonitrile industry has been in a quagmire of losses.
On April 13, the loss amount was once expanded to 3927.
5 yuan (ton price, the same below).
The theoretical average profit and loss in the first half of the year was -859 yuan, down 3650 yuan from the same period last year.
Around, the current loss is still around 1,500 yuan
.
Industry analysts believe that although the industry has taken measures such as overhauling and reducing burdens to actively save itself, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to alleviate.
Even if the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" market has a greater chance of improving, the low-level profit or even loss situation is still difficult to change
.
Supply pressure increases
Supply pressure increasesWith Zhejiang Petrochemical's 260,000-ton/year new plant put into operation at the end of June, the pressure on the supply of acrylonitrile in the acrylonitrile market increased significantly in the second half of the year
.
Throughout this year, the average operating rate of the acrylonitrile industry from January to August was around 80%, down about 10% from the same period last year
.
Failed to follow up on demand
Failed to follow up on demandFrom the perspective of new production capacity, the three main downstream ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide of acrylonitrile will have no new production capacity in 2020, which aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand
.
Specifically, the textile industry has been suppressed by the epidemic and the tension between China and the United States.
There are few orders for acrylic fibers, and most manufacturers have plans to reduce production or even stop
.
Another downstream ABS manufacturer basically produces at full capacity, and it is difficult to increase the consumption of raw materials
.
Raw material prices rise
Raw material prices riseIn the past, the profit of acrylonitrile was relatively high, often as high as 2000~3000 yuan, so the price trend of acrylonitrile was not closely related to the raw material propylene
.
In order to avoid this unfavorable situation, acrylonitrile manufacturers have started the second centralized maintenance of the year in August.
However, under the situation of oversupply, the industry's loss situation continued, and the loss amount for the entire August was around 1,600 yuan
.
From the perspective of the market outlook, driven by the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", the overall petrochemical market has entered the traditional peak season, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the downstream demand for propylene has strengthened, especially the main downstream polypropylene is driven by the demand for epidemic prevention materials.
The price has recently refreshed the high point since 2015, which has an obvious effect on the support of raw materials.
The "golden nine and silver ten" in the propylene market can be expected.
At that time, the downstream profits will continue to be squeezed, and the low profit or even loss pattern of the acrylonitrile industry is difficult to reverse
.
