Acetic acid: supply and demand mismatch shock and fall

　　In the first half of the year, the trend of the acetic acid market was just opposite to that of the same period last year, showing a high before and a low, with an overall decline of 32.
96%
.
The leading factor driving the acetic acid market to fluctuate and lower this time is the mismatch between supply and demand
.
After the addition of new production capacity, the overall supply of the acetic acid market has increased, but the downstream demand has always been flat and cannot be effectively digested
.

　　Tian Xi, a marketer of acetic acid in Liaoning: Three fluctuations caused shocks to go down

　　In the first half of the year, the overall acetic acid market showed three fluctuations.
The average market price fell from 6,190 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to 4,150 yuan
.
Among them, from the highest point of 6190 yuan at the beginning of the year to the lowest point of 3837.
5 yuan in late June, the maximum price difference reached 2352.
5 yuan
.

　　The first fluctuation was from the beginning of the year to early March, with an overall decline of 32.
44%
.
The average market price of acetic acid began to decline from a high of 6,190 yuan, and fell all the way to the current low of 4,182 yuan on March 8
.
During this period, the operating rate of the acetic acid industry remained at a high level as a whole, but the downstream operation was not good due to the Spring Festival holiday and other influences.
Under the background of the mismatch between supply and demand, the market continued to decline
.

　　The second fluctuation was from early March to the end of April, showing a first rise and then a fall, with an overall slight increase of 1.
87%
.
The average market price of acetic acid first rebounded from the low point to the current high of 5,270 yuan on April 6, an increase of 26.
01%
.
After circling for two days, it suddenly turned down and fell to the lowest point of this stage on April 27 at 4,260 yuan
.
In the early stage of this stage, the number of acetic acid maintenance enterprises increased, and the supply continued to decline.
Coupled with the pull of exports, the acetic acid market entered an upward channel
.
However, in the first ten days of April, with the intensification of the domestic epidemic, logistics in some regions were affected, and the demand side continued to be sluggish
.

　　The third fluctuation was from the end of April to the end of June, and it also rose first and then fell, with an overall decrease of 2.
58%
.
The average market price of acetic acid once climbed from the previous low to the stage high of 5,640 yuan on June 6, an increase of 32.
39%
.
After that, the price pulled back sharply again, until it fell to the lowest point in the first half of the year at 3837.
5 yuan on June 22, and then recovered slightly and finally ended at a price of 4150 yuan
.
In May, the epidemic situation was basically under effective control, and the market gradually recovered.
At the same time, many foreign plants stopped unexpectedly, and the acetic acid market continued to rise.
It gradually stabilized in the middle and late May, and the downstream also maintained purchases as needed
.
In mid-to-early June, with the industry's overall high inventory and the industry's expectation of a gradual increase in supply, some companies took the lead in sharply reducing prices under the condition of high product inventory, resulting in a sharp drop in the overall average price of acetic acid
.

　　Zhang Yanqiu, an analyst at Zhongyu Information: The new plant is put into operation as a key node

　　The main reasons for the large drop in the market price of acetic acid in the first half of the year are: Guangxi Huayi's new 700,000-ton/year acetic acid plant was put into operation in early February, but the new production capacity of downstream acetate and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) was limited, and The operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in intensified contradictions between supply and demand
.

　　In February, after Guangxi Huayi's new acetic acid plant was put into operation, the market fell sharply, with the average price falling by 1,500 yuan in one month, the largest monthly decline in the first half of the year
.
In addition to the newly built acetic acid plant in Guangxi Huayi, the effective production capacity of Yangzi acetoacetic acid in the first half of the year also increased from 420,000 tons/year to 500,000 tons/year
.
As of the end of June, the effective domestic production capacity of acetic acid was 10.
76 million tons/year, an increase of 760,000 tons/year year-on-year
.
According to statistics from Zhongyu Information, the total domestic production of acetic acid from January to June this year was about 4.
5 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons over the same period last year
.

　　In the first half of the year, the new production capacity downstream of acetic acid was very limited
.
Anhui Tiancheng's new 50,000-ton/year acetic anhydride plant was put into operation at the beginning of this year
.
Jiangmen Qianxin's 600,000-ton/year acetate project in Zhuhai was put into operation, but its 500,000-ton/year acetate project in Jiangmen was shut down, and the actual new production capacity was 100,000 tons/year
.
The newly added capacity of PTA is 3.
6 million tons/year, and there are no new downstream plants put into operation or only expanded on the basis of existing production capacity.
The consumption of acetic acid is limited, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the acetic acid market in the first half of the year
.

　　Ma Yu, analyst of Fushun Petrochemical Company: Downstream terminal demand has improved

　　From the perspective of the supply and demand fundamentals of the acetic acid market in the second half of the year, there are a large number of new production capacity plans to be put into the market on the demand side, which may change the current supply and demand mismatch situation and bring benefits to the market
.

　　In terms of supply, Shandong Yankuang Lunan plans to increase the effective production capacity of acetic acid by 200,000 tons/year to 1.
2 million tons/year by the end of the year
.
Other acetic acid plants have not yet heard of expansion plans
.

　　In terms of downstream demand, new production capacity is relatively concentrated
.
In terms of PTA, Weilian Chemical's 2.
5 million tons/year, Tongkun Jiatong Petrochemical's 2.
5 million tons/year and Hengli Petrochemical's 5 million tons/year units are planned to be put into operation, with a total new capacity of 10 million tons/year
.
In terms of chloroacetic acid, Shanxi Yushe Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
plans to put into operation a 90,000-ton/year plant
.
In terms of vinyl acetate, Shenghong Group's 300,000 tons/year plant is planned to be put into operation
.
In terms of acetic anhydride, Shandong Yankuang Lunan 50,000 tons/year, Henan Kaifeng Ronghua 100,000 tons/year capacity release
.
After a large number of new production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, it will improve the current mismatch between the supply and demand of acetic acid
.

　　Macroscopically, with the accelerated pace of the central government to protect market entities and promote economic recovery and development, the industry generally expects that the downstream terminal demand for acetic acid will gradually improve in the second half of the year
.