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In the first half of the year, the acetic acid market opened low and moved high.
After the opening price of 4,366.
67 yuan (ton price, the same below), the price fell briefly to an annual low of 3,950 yuan, and then started a skyrocketing pattern, rising to a historical high of 8137.
5 yuan and then turned around.
, The final closing at 7450 yuan, the maximum amplitude reached 106%
.
Rush to historical highs
Rush to historical highs Rush to historical highsAccording to Guo Xun, an acetic acid analyst at Zhuo Chuang Chemical, the acetic acid market in the first four months of this year showed a stair-like upward trend, reaching a high price in the first half of the year at the end of April
.
At the beginning of the year, the overall inventory of the acetic acid industry was low.
Jiangsu Thorpe, Tianjin Soda Plant, Hebei Kingboard and other units were shut down for maintenance one after another, and other parts of the equipment were also unstable.
The overall operating rate of the industry was 70%~80 %, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises has been maintained at a low level of 70,000 to 100,000 tons
.
In the same period, the downstream PTA industry of acetic acid released new production capacity, and the monthly theoretical increase of acetic acid consumption was 20,000 to 25,000 tons
From May to June, the shutdown of the acetic acid plant was relatively reduced, the industry operating rate increased compared with the first quarter, and the load fluctuated in the range of 74% to 94%
.
During the same period, the cost pressure of downstream factories became more obvious, the pace of sourcing was forced to slow down, the atmosphere of market negotiations began to fade, and the price of acetic acid basically stopped rising and entered the stage of digestion and consolidation
Supply shortage pushed up
Supply shortage pushes up supply shortage pushes up "With a slight decrease in supply, domestic demand and a substantial increase in exports, a certain supply gap has appeared in the acetic acid market, pushing the price of acetic acid to a historical high in the first half of the year
.
" Jin Lianchuang analyst Xu Na analyzed
In terms of supply, the total domestic output of acetic acid in the first half of the year was about 4.
07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.
38%
.
But the operating rate is not high, about 86.
From the perspective of demand, there is an increase in downstream PTA demand for acetic acid
.
As the large-scale refining and chemical integration project is launched, a total of 8.
From the perspective of exports, the domestic acetic acid export volume in the first half of the year was about 360,000 tons, an increase of 67.
8% year-on-year, which greatly reduced the domestic spot circulation
.
In mid-February, the United States suddenly encountered a cold wave, and all acetic acid plants were shut down, involving a total production capacity of about 2.
However, near the middle of the year, the chemical market entered the traditional low season for demand, and the high cost of raw materials was difficult to transmit downstream.
Some downstream factories have reduced production and shutdown due to continuous losses.
In addition, the "July 1" celebration activities, acetate, chloroacetic acid, and glycine were added.
The downstream is significantly affected by factors such as transportation and environmental protection, dragging the acetic acid market up and down
.
High shock and fall
High shock and fall High shock and fall Xu Na believes that at present, the supply side is mixed with negative factors in the second half of the year
.
Due to the excessively high market price of acetic acid in the first half of the year, it will fall from the high level in the second half of the year.
At present, the domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, and corporate quotations are relatively high, downstream factories just need to purchase rationally, procurement is limited, and the downstream market is obviously resistant to high prices, and the actual transaction price of acetic acid continues to decline
.
Under the pressure of the market, acetic acid companies have lowered their quotations to maintain shipments.
At the same time, in late July, Henan Longyu's 600,000-ton/year plant will gradually resume normal operation after overhaul; Guangxi Huayi’s 500,000-ton/year plant that has just started construction will continue to be exported, and the supply of acetic acid will increase, which will be negative for market prices.
.
However, later, Sinopec Great Wall 410,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua Yongli 350,000 tons/year, Yankuang 1 million tons/year, Shanghai Huayi 700,000 tons/year, Anhui Huayi 500,000 tons/year, etc.
Overhaul plans, so there will be a certain reduction in supply
.
The peak season for traditional demand for superimposed "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is approaching, and the load of acetate, chloroacetic acid, glycine and other installations will increase, and the demand for acetic acid is expected to increase
.
In addition, the new production capacity of PTA will be released in the first half of the year.
In addition, the second phase of Zhejiang Yisheng New Materials will also be put into production.
Therefore, the domestic demand for acetic acid in the second half of the year is expected to be better than that in the middle of the year
.
