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Recently, affected by pre-holiday stocks, domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks are indeed increasing, but the increase is lower than market expectations
.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the market is generally optimistic about consumer demand in the peak season after the holiday, and at the same time, the recently released economic data has performed better
.
If aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level after the holiday, then the probability of further widening of the back spread between Shanghai aluminum contracts is higher, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities
to buy near months and sell far months.
In January, the Shanghai aluminum disk fluctuated to the downside, and then rebounded slightly, and the overall center of gravity of volatility shifted
downward.
In terms of aluminum, more time showed shock characteristics, and the center of gravity fell
slightly.
Weaker downstream demand during the holiday season is the biggest bearish factor
in the market.
In terms of inventory, the accumulation process is slow, which brings strong support
to the plate.
The month-end downward momentum continued to slow down, and the medium and long-term moving average group gradually flattened
.
On the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival factor, the rate of new capacity added by aluminum smelters has slowed
down significantly.
Inner Mongolia issued electricity price policy adjustment measures, and the comprehensive policy has slightly increased the production cost of aluminum plants in Inner Mongolia, but it is not enough to affect the operation of the province's production capacity and the launch of new production capacity in the short term; With the window for aluminum ingot imports closed and losses narrowed, SHMET data showed that the inflow of imported aluminum ingots in the East China market in the week of February 6 was 2,340 tons, slightly higher than last week
.
Bonded aluminium inventories recorded a slight increase due to lower landings and higher bonded warehouse shipments
.
In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, environmental protection, gas restrictions, early Spring Festival holiday and other factors, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises continued to decline, and the profiles, cables, aluminum strips and aluminum alloy industries basically entered the Spring Festival holiday mode
.
With the acceptance of foreign epidemics and the implementation of vaccines, overseas consumption is expected to gradually improve
.
As of February 8, according to SHMET statistics, social stocks increased by 36,000 tons to 732,000 tons; aluminum stocks in the previous period increased by 24,400 tons to 263,900 tons last week; LME aluminum stocks decreased by 24,500 tons to 1,406,500 tons
last week.
The US stimulus policy is expected to increase, years ago domestic aluminum downstream reserve optimism to boost the market, the current domestic aluminum accumulation speed is not as expected, years ago aluminum rebound strengthened, the year after the year demand is expected to be reflected in the current price in advance, which may lead to the year aluminum price in the stage of weakness, as demand recovery gradually stronger operation
.
After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the absolute price and profit of aluminum to consider
.
