5 reasons why Guizhou Maotai shouldn't be so expensive

On April 25, Guizhou Maotai fell 1.82% to close at 952.37 yuan/share, hitting the first "thousand yuan" of A-sharesHowever, the company's first-quarter revenue was 21.644 billion yuan, up 23.92 percent year-on-year, while net profit was 11.221 billion yuan, up 31.91 percent from a year earlier, according to the 2019 quarterly reportAfter the data was released, Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its target price for Guizhou Maotai to 1060 yuan on April 25the capital market is in the long-term downward trend, Maotai and other large-cap blue-chip consumer stocks, the more prominent the phenomenon of capital accumulationIn recent years, the overall market decline, but the division of individual stocks is obvious, 'white horse leader', 'drink ingaves medicine' and other stocks still roseMaotai investment risk is relatively low, sustained growth is strong, driven by risk aversion, capital concentrated investmentAt the same time, Maotai in the high-end liquor industry has been in a leading position, the alternative is not high, what is the future of the large-cap blue-chip layout represented by Maotai? If market fundamentals, liquidity and other factors meet expectations, in the current operating model, Maotai, Ping An and other stocks still have potentialBut the stock price is also affected by the technical aspects, cyclical fluctuations and other factors, it is difficult to judgeAt the same time, it is closely related to the investors' own investment preferences, investment terms, professional degree, wind control ability and other factors, can not be simply generalizedMaotai share price may have risen to more than a thousand yuan in recent days, but it needs a lot of supportSuch as stable market fundamentals, adequate capital liquidityAt the same time, Maotai's high share price also has a greater relationship with its capital disposal strategyGuizhou Maotai's 2018 dividend of 14.54 yuan per share, based on thousands of yuan of dividend yield of only 1.5%, with the four major state-owned commercial banks and other dividend ratio is a big gapin short, Guizhou Maotai should not be so expensive:1, Maotai is a luxury, its performance is a bellwether;2, stock price and market value growth is more conducive to financing and speculative benefits; 3, the nature of shareholder investment requires cash flow continued to flow in; 4, no endogenous growth, exogenous mergers and acquisitions, abundant cash flow is best for dividends; 5, Guizhou Maotai should give up the market value of the stock market, continue to increase dividends, return to the dividend (Fu Lichun is an economist, representing only personal views)