1,000 yuan in one day!

Since October, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has experienced a two-month high level and then picked up the uptrend
.
Especially in the second week after the National Day, the price of ammonium sulfate soared by more than 60%, and the increase in Wuhai area of ​​Inner Mongolia even reached 90%
.
As of October 23, the domestic mainstream transaction price of ammonium sulfate has risen to about 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and individual companies in Shanxi have quoted as high as 2,190 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 100%, a year-on-year increase of 300%, and a record high.

.

"Last week, the price of ammonium sulfate in our place rose by 1,000 yuan a day.
After two months of preparation, it doubled in one day.
This is a hot scene that has never been seen before
.
The reason is the result of the double help of internal and external disks, especially the strong export drive.
The market has skyrocketed
.
In addition, the recent continuous rise in coal prices has also made this round of ammonium sulfate a record high
.
" Zhang Yi, a senior trader in Shandong, said
.

Supply decreases, demand increases

Statistics from Henan Chemical Industry Network show that as winter is approaching, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually picked up in October, from 27% at the beginning of the month to the current 33%
.
Compound fertilizer companies in various places reported that the operating rate will be increased in the future to prepare for supply
.

Zhang Yi said that the increase in the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased the purchase of ammonium sulfate
.
Recently, due to the "double control" of energy consumption, coal prices have been soaring, resulting in severe restrictions on the release of production capacity of coking enterprises in various places, and the output of ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly.
This pattern of increasing demand and decreasing supply has helped the rapid rise of ammonium sulfate market
.

According to the introduction of Henan urea enterprises, since September, the price of urea has risen from 2,400 yuan to the current 3,200 yuan, an increase of more than 33%; in October, the FOB price of urea port has reached 4,000 yuan.
play a role in fueling the flames
.

Volume and price of external disks rise

Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, believes that the continuous rise of the international ammonium sulfate market in October led to a substantial increase in exports, which is also one of the main factors for the domestic ammonium sulfate price to hit a new high
.

Port information shows that on October 15, the price of FOB China ammonium sulfate has risen to 320-345 US dollars, which is equivalent to more than 2,200 yuan, which is nearly 1,000 yuan higher than the domestic market price in the same period.
This is also the second week after the holiday.
The domestic ammonium sulfate market Soaring source of power
.
And with the follow-up of the domestic market, the international ammonium sulfate price set a new record again on October 22, and the port FOB China quotation has reached 375-400 US dollars, equivalent to about 2,500 yuan, supporting the domestic market to stand at a high level
.

 "Because ammonium sulfate products come from coking, power desulfurization, caprolactam and other industries, the output is not large, and enterprises generally do not sell it as the main product, so this type of product has always been concerned by many traders, and a considerable part of the supply is controlled by traders.
, which is also one of the main reasons why the ammonium sulfate market is easy to be hyped
.
The surge in the ammonium sulfate market does not rule out the possibility of traders participating in the hype
.
” Shao Huiwen said
.

Prevent callback risk

According to the person in charge of a coking enterprise in Shenma, Pingmei, affected by the "double control" of energy consumption, the coal consumption indicators of many domestic coking enterprises are running low during the year.
In addition, the shortage of coal has led to high prices.
, the short-term ammonium sulfate operating rate is difficult to improve
.
In addition, the current domestic caprolactam plant operating rate is only about 70%, and some plants are shut down for maintenance.
It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate spot quantity will also be difficult to increase
.

"Affected by the sharp rise in the price of ammonium sulfate, fertilizer companies are cautious in buying goods in view of the low acceptance of terminal agricultural demand, and the demand for ammonium sulfate is relatively weak
.
The current high transaction is mainly driven by port demand.
Once the shortage of port supply is alleviated, We must pay attention to the risk of falling ammonium sulfate market
.
" Henan trader Li Bing reminded
.

Industry insiders analyzed that on October 25, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will strengthen credit supervision over the performance of medium and long-term coal supply contracts in accordance with the law, urge contracted market entities to strictly perform their contractual obligations, and include market entities that do not strictly perform their contracts into the records of dishonesty, Implement key supervision, and publicly expose market entities that seriously violate the law and dishonest and punish them in accordance with the law
.
Various information shows that the state will further control the continuous price increase of coal that is out of market rules, and the entire coal chemical industry chain market is expected to cool down.
It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will also face a certain correction
.