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In 2022, the increase in pig production will lead to an overall decline in pig prices, which will affect the year-on-year reduction in pig self-breeding and self-raising profits
.
Although the procurement cost of pigs has decreased, the terminal demand is sluggish, the sales pressure of white stripe pork is greater, and the profitability of slaughtering enterprises has not improved
.
Entering 2023, pig supply may decline, and terminal demand has room to improve compared with 2022, or support the profitability of both breeding and
slaughtering.
In 2022, pig prices fell year-on-year, and the decline in breeding profits was large
In 2022, the national average pig trading price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, the lowest point of the year was 11.
70 yuan / kg on March 18, and the highest point was 28.
62 yuan / kg on October 19, and the maximum price fluctuation range was 144.
62%.
As of December 23, the average annual price of live pigs in 2022 was 18.
64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.
24%
over the same period last year.
The main reason is that the hog supply continues to increase
in 2022.
Similar to the price trend of live pigs, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising of pigs in China in 2022 will first rise and then fall
.
As of December 20, the annual profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising in 2022 was 470.
97 yuan / head, a year-on-year decrease of 22.
79%.
However, compared with the pig price, the profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising decreased by a large year-on-year, and the fundamental reason was the increase
in feed costs.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, as of December 19, the annual average price of pig feed in 2022 was 3276.
03 yuan / ton, the highest level in the past five years, with a year-on-year increase of 7.
67%.
Affected by the decline in pig breeding profits, the pace of pig slaughter at the breeding end of the year accelerated compared with 2021, and the enthusiasm for replenishment decreased, resulting in a decrease in the average weight of pig trading and a decrease in piglet prices during the year, and the average weight of national pig trading in 2022 was 122.
08 kg, a year-on-year decrease of 4.
08%; The average annual price of 7kg piglets was 460.
00 yuan/head, a year-on-year decrease of 34.
96%.
2021-2022 feed price and pig self-breeding profit change chart
Slaughter margins fell slightly
Contrary to the trend of breeding profits, the gross profit of national pig slaughtering enterprises in 2022 will first rise, then fall and then rise
.
As of December 23, the annual average of slaughtering gross profit was 16.
61 yuan / head, a year-on-year decrease of 12.
41%.
As the main cost of slaughtering enterprises, pig procurement and white stripe pork sales price directly affect the slaughtering gross profit, but considering the lag of the terminal response to the price and the phenomenon of oversupply in the pig market in the past two years, the pig price has the greatest
impact on the slaughtering gross profit of the slaughtering enterprise.
The highest point of slaughtering gross profit in 2022 occurred in the peak demand season before the Spring Festival holiday, and slaughtering enterprises sold smoothly, similar
to the trend before the Spring Festival holiday in 2021.
The lowest point occurred in July, when pig prices began to rise rapidly, when the terminal acceptance of high-priced white stripe pork in the off-season was limited, resulting in slaughtering gross profit falling to the lowest point
of the year.
After entering the fourth quarter, as pig prices fell, slaughter gross profit gradually recovered
.
Compared with the profit of the breeding end, supported by the decline in pig procurement costs, although the gross profit of pig slaughter in 2022 fell by a small amount, the overall decline was still nearly 12.
41%, mainly due to the weak terminal demand during the year, the supply of pork market exceeded demand, and the low price white stripe sometimes hit the market
.
According to the survey of Zhuochuang Information, the average gross profit of slaughtering enterprises in the country can only ensure the net profit when
it is more than 40 yuan / head.
In 2022, the operating pressure of slaughtering enterprises will increase, and some small-scale slaughtering enterprises will stop production, resulting in the slaughter volume in the peak demand season in the second half of the year not rising but falling
.
In the second half of 2022, the average daily slaughter volume of pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 137,500, a decrease of 24.
37%
from the first half of the year.
In 2023, the upstream and downstream profits of the pig industry may increase double
Extrapolating from the number of breeding sows and the pig breeding cycle, the supply of pigs in 2023 may decrease year-on-year, which will support the increase in pig prices compared with 2022
.
Considering that feed prices are already at the highest level in history, the increase in the later period may be limited, so led by the rise in pig prices, the profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising will increase
year-on-year in 2023.
With the smooth flow of goods and the enhancement of personnel mobility, pork market consumption may increase in 2023, especially catering consumption may improve significantly, supporting the overall demand to improve, and after a round of "reshuffle" in the slaughtering industry in 2022, the competitive pressure may be reduced in 2023, and the profitability of slaughtering enterprises in 2023 may increase
year-on-year.
Therefore, Zhuochuang Information expects that the upstream and downstream profits of the pig industry will increase in 2023
.
;
;In 2022, the increase in pig production will lead to an overall decline in pig prices, which will affect the year-on-year reduction in pig self-breeding and self-raising profits
.
Although the procurement cost of pigs has decreased, the terminal demand is sluggish, the sales pressure of white stripe pork is greater, and the profitability of slaughtering enterprises has not improved
.
Entering 2023, pig supply may decline, and terminal demand has room to improve compared with 2022, or support the profitability of both breeding and
slaughtering.
In 2022, pig prices fell year-on-year, and the decline in breeding profits was large
In 2022, pig prices fell year-on-year, and the decline in breeding profits was largeIn 2022, the national average pig trading price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, the lowest point of the year was 11.
70 yuan / kg on March 18, and the highest point was 28.
62 yuan / kg on October 19, and the maximum price fluctuation range was 144.
62%.
As of December 23, the average annual price of live pigs in 2022 was 18.
64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.
24%
over the same period last year.
The main reason is that the hog supply continues to increase
in 2022.
Similar to the price trend of live pigs, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising of pigs in China in 2022 will first rise and then fall
.
As of December 20, the annual profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising in 2022 was 470.
97 yuan / head, a year-on-year decrease of 22.
79%.
However, compared with the pig price, the profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising decreased by a large year-on-year, and the fundamental reason was the increase
in feed costs.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, as of December 19, the annual average price of pig feed in 2022 was 3276.
03 yuan / ton, the highest level in the past five years, with a year-on-year increase of 7.
67%.
Affected by the decline in pig breeding profits, the pace of pig slaughter at the breeding end of the year accelerated compared with 2021, and the enthusiasm for replenishment decreased, resulting in a decrease in the average weight of pig trading and a decrease in piglet prices during the year, and the average weight of national pig trading in 2022 was 122.
08 kg, a year-on-year decrease of 4.
08%; The average annual price of 7kg piglets was 460.
00 yuan/head, a year-on-year decrease of 34.
96%.
2021-2022 feed price and pig self-breeding profit change chart
2021-2022 Feed Price and Pig Self-breeding Profit Change Chart 2021-2022 Feed Price and Pig Self-breeding Profit Change Chart 2021-2022 Feed Price and Pig Self-breeding Profit Change ChartSlaughter margins fell slightly
Slaughter margins fell slightlyContrary to the trend of breeding profits, the gross profit of national pig slaughtering enterprises in 2022 will first rise, then fall and then rise
.
As of December 23, the annual average of slaughtering gross profit was 16.
61 yuan / head, a year-on-year decrease of 12.
41%.
As the main cost of slaughtering enterprises, pig procurement and white stripe pork sales price directly affect the slaughtering gross profit, but considering the lag of the terminal response to the price and the phenomenon of oversupply in the pig market in the past two years, the pig price has the greatest
impact on the slaughtering gross profit of the slaughtering enterprise.
The highest point of slaughtering gross profit in 2022 occurred in the peak demand season before the Spring Festival holiday, and slaughtering enterprises sold smoothly, similar
to the trend before the Spring Festival holiday in 2021.
The lowest point occurred in July, when pig prices began to rise rapidly, when the terminal acceptance of high-priced white stripe pork in the off-season was limited, resulting in slaughtering gross profit falling to the lowest point
of the year.
After entering the fourth quarter, as pig prices fell, slaughter gross profit gradually recovered
.
Compared with the profit of the breeding end, supported by the decline in pig procurement costs, although the gross profit of pig slaughter in 2022 fell by a small amount, the overall decline was still nearly 12.
41%, mainly due to the weak terminal demand during the year, the supply of pork market exceeded demand, and the low price white stripe sometimes hit the market
.
According to the survey of Zhuochuang Information, the average gross profit of slaughtering enterprises in the country can only ensure the net profit when
it is more than 40 yuan / head.
In 2022, the operating pressure of slaughtering enterprises will increase, and some small-scale slaughtering enterprises will stop production, resulting in the slaughter volume in the peak demand season in the second half of the year not rising but falling
.
In the second half of 2022, the average daily slaughter volume of pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 137,500, a decrease of 24.
37%
from the first half of the year.
In 2023, the upstream and downstream profits of the pig industry may increase double
In 2023, the upstream and downstream profits of the pig industry may increase doubleExtrapolating from the number of breeding sows and the pig breeding cycle, the supply of pigs in 2023 may decrease year-on-year, which will support the increase in pig prices compared with 2022
.
Considering that feed prices are already at the highest level in history, the increase in the later period may be limited, so led by the rise in pig prices, the profit of pig self-breeding and self-raising will increase
year-on-year in 2023.
With the smooth flow of goods and the enhancement of personnel mobility, pork market consumption may increase in 2023, especially catering consumption may improve significantly, supporting the overall demand to improve, and after a round of "reshuffle" in the slaughtering industry in 2022, the competitive pressure may be reduced in 2023, and the profitability of slaughtering enterprises in 2023 may increase
year-on-year.
Therefore, Zhuochuang Information expects that the upstream and downstream profits of the pig industry will increase in 2023
.
