Zhuo Chuang information: pig prices change frequently The price of breeding piglets may reflect the industry

Since 2021, domestic pig prices have changed frequently, and in addition to supply and demand itself, the industry is expected to have a significant driving effect

In 2022, pig prices bottomed out in the first half of the year and rebounded in the second half of the year, the shock went higher PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Figure 1 shows that from the perspective of price trends in the past five years, pig prices in the first half of 2022 are close to historical lows, and pig prices rebound in the second half of the

PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Figure 1 PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The recent piglet supplement reflects the industry's expectations for pig prices in early 2023 PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving livestock

The piglet replenishment situation is an important indicator

According to the inference of the pig growth cycle, the piglets in August and September are out of the pen

PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Figure 2PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The price of binary gilts reflects the industry's expectations for pig prices at the end of 2023 PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving livestock

In addition to piglets being a factor that affects the industry's expectations for future pig prices, the price of binary gilts is also one of

PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Figure 3 PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

At the same time, according to Zhuo Chuang information research, the market representative breeding company binary reserve sales in July and August continued to be high, with a month-on-month increase of more than 25%.

In summary, the price of binary gilts reflects the industry's expectations for the pig market price in the next 13-14 months, and it is expected that sows can be bred or more abundant in early 2023, and the corresponding industry holds a more ideal expectation

It is expected that in 2023, pig prices will theoretically fall back to PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving livestock

In summary, the current trend changes in piglets, binary sows and fertile sows reflect the industry's expectations for future pig prices, considering the seasonal trend of industry consumption, the price or high level of operation before the Spring Festival in 2023, but through the piglet supplement expectations, the amount of piglets after March of the following year may decline, but the supply and demand are weak, and the decline in pig prices is limited
.
Entering the middle of the year, the pork in the high temperature weather is not good, which has a negative impact on pig prices; Coupled with the increase in binary reserve sales from July to August 2022, the number of live pigs out of the pen in June 2023 may increase, the supply and demand will be weak, and the price of pigs may have a certain risk
of decline.
After entering September, the school season is superimposed on the Mid-Autumn Festival boost, the market gradually enters the peak consumption season, driven by demand, pig prices or shocks higher
.
PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

However, when the industry ideology is highly consistent, the behavior of adjusting the rhythm of the bar driven by the expectation of consistency will also have a negative impact on the trend of pig prices, so the short-term and medium-term market still needs to pay attention to the expectations
of the industry for the price in real time.
PuM China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry