Zhang Wuchang predicts that China's agricultural population will fall to 25% in the future

Introduction: at the recent IBM forum in Guangzhou, economist Zhang Wuchang gave a speech on the challenge of China's accession to the WTO After receiving his Ph.D from the University of California, Los Angeles, in 1967, Dr Zhang was appointed president of the American Society for western economics in 1997 The industry predicted that he would probably become the first Chinese to win the Nobel Prize in economics His speech was warmly welcomed by the participants In terms of agriculture, Zhang Wuchang believes that agriculture is the most vulnerable to the influence of the world trade organization China's current agricultural population is no longer the 85% it used to be His estimate is about 60%, but to become an economic power, it needs to fall below 25% The agricultural population of the United States is about 7%, that of Taiwan is about 15% It should not be so difficult for China to fall to about 25% Many people think it is impossible, but Zhang Wuchang thinks it is not so difficult Now the problem is that the rate of return of land for industrial use in mainland China is about 10 times higher than that of agricultural land Since it is 10 times higher, of course, it is necessary to turn it into industry, because local governments are very interested in turning it into industry No matter how you support agriculture, local governments like to turn it into industrial use, so Zhang Wuchang thinks that agricultural land will gradually decrease 。 Many people are worried that because of the WTO agreement, the Chinese will not buy domestic cars Zhang Wuchang's view is that the prospect of domestic cars is good in the long run He thinks that if domestic cars want to survive, they should take a relatively low price route Qj7 the foreign investors in China believe that if the Chinese government can reduce the import tax on auto parts, the prices of the cars produced by those foreign investors in China must be cheaper than those produced outside He has no doubt that the cars made in China can be sold in Southeast Asia in a few years, or even in the United States one day When it comes to finance, Zhang Wuchang pointed out that the RMB must become an international currency, otherwise it will not become a system To become an international currency, it is necessary to have an international financial center Therefore, China must open its finance and lift its foreign exchange control There is no other choice He said that there is no need to prepare for the deregulation There is no need to prepare at all You can do it as soon as you open your mouth You have to prepare for more trouble According to Zhang Wuchang, if we can control the circulation of foreign exchange, RMB will be a strong currency in the 21st century Many people will worry that domestic money will flow to foreign countries, endless flow, many people think so But Zhang Wuchang said, you think wrong What's the money for? It's investment! If China removes foreign exchange control, what better place in the world for foreign banks than China's investment opportunities? If China opens its financial market and deregulates foreign exchange, Zhang Wuchang affirms that within five years, Shanghai will surpass Hong Kong, and 20 years later, Shanghai will become the most prosperous financial center in human history Qj7