Yao Minfu: the impact of African swine fever and the precise positioning of agricultural and animal husbandry enterprises in the new era

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This article is a report from "where to go? Awa big winner FF assistant Rural Revitalization annual meeting" Yao Minfu, senior vice chairman of Zhengda Group, is known as "the management godfather of China's agriculture and animal husbandry industry" He summarized the ten trends and challenges of agriculture in China, the new thinking and new strategy we should have, and the twelve word formula of enterprise life "Cash is king, hard work, keep talents" 4SS 4SS I new trends and challenges in China's agriculture I economic uncertainties 4SS 1 Uncertainties brought about by trade frictions between China and the United States 4s2 In the past, China's traditional growth model, which uses government investment as the engine of economic growth, has been challenged The root cause of 4SS lies in: relying on investment to promote economic development to create a high price rise 4SS 3 African swine fever China's African swine fever spread to 16 provinces and 3 municipalities in just three months at a rate of 50 kilometers a day In the 1970s, the virus spread in Europe, only 100 kilometers in a year We spread thousands of kilometers in three months The death rate of classical swine fever is 100% There is no medicine to cure it, so we can only kill it all There are hundreds of millions of pigs in China, which will cause trillions of yuan of losses if slaughtered 4SS as early as March in the report of African swine fever threat to China, the FAO reminded China that African swine fever broke out in the eastern Russian city of Irkusk in March 2017, which is only 1000 kilometers away from the Chinese border Once entering China, CSFV will bring devastating impact on animal safety, food safety and food security, the report said Because they know Once entering China, it will be out of control The only way is to guard against the border But for some reason, it took nearly a year and a half for classical swine fever to spread from Russia to China, and only three months for China 4SS on August 24, people's daily forwarded an article "African swine fever will not infect people, pork can be eaten at ease", suggesting that sick pork can be eaten What's more, the lack of subsidies for farmers is the main reason for the spread of CSFV in Africa If you don't subsidize effectively, the pig farmers will not report the situation of swine fever honestly, but will speed up the sale of sick pigs to reduce their losses In this way, you can effectively prevent blocking? At the beginning of the food chain is the countryside, and the individual farmers are the most difficult to survive If there is a little turbulence, they will lose their lives They are worth taking risks for few interests 4SS trend and Challenge 2: industrialization is not only a development prospect but also a trap 4SS looks at the agricultural development track of developed countries, industrialization is the only way From raw material planting to feed industry, then to food industry, from animal energy to human energy 4SS agricultural industrialization is like a "golden baby" As long as it is properly managed, it can earn money from head to toe But it is not easy to hold on to it To connect all links to form a chain, we need to do a lot of work, and we must have a sound and efficient social service system 4SS Holland's flower industry is famous all over the world, but flowers are valued in a word of "fresh" Therefore, the requirements for the operation system are particularly high Any omission in any link from cultivation, production, classification, preservation, packaging, transportation and sales may cause devastating losses Their flower auction and distribution system is the most efficient in the world Without such an efficient service system, flowers in Holland can hardly achieve today's hot industry, and will not lead the new trend of flowers in the world 4SS industrialization is a beautiful trap, and scale is not the same as modernization Scale is the means, modernization is the purpose How to transform the "linear economy" at the expense of natural resources and environmental pollution into "circular economy" The important symbol of 4SS to realize agricultural modernization is to equip agriculture with advanced means of production and science and technology, so as to greatly improve agricultural output and agricultural labor productivity Therefore, we must use modern science and technology to realize the fundamental transformation of traditional agricultural production 4SS emphasizes the cooperation between enterprises, and gives full play to their respective advantages in good faith 4SS trend and challenge 3: the low-cost development of poultry will continue to challenge the price of pork 4SS China's poultry production growth rate is faster than pork, due to the efficiency of poultry industry to producers and consumers Among all kinds of animal protein production industries in China, poultry production has the highest level of industrialization According to analysis, China's current per capita poultry consumption is still at a low level, and the younger generation of Chinese are increasingly accepting poultry products, which makes it possible for the poultry industry to obtain a higher market share Most of the growth comes from emerging fast food services and fast-food refrigeration / processing industries 4SS from a global perspective, the global poultry industry shows a "phenomenal" growth, and the global poultry production is expected to exceed the pork production in 2030 In terms of demand, in the past two decades, the global chicken demand has increased by 91%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; it is expected that the global chicken demand will increase by another 30% in ten years 4SS trend and challenge 4: the price of imported pork, especially pork by-products, will continue to challenge the price of domestic pork 4SS from 2011 to 2013 The import volume of pork and pig products in China will continue to increase steadily The total import volume of frozen pork is 1.57 million tons, more than the total import volume from 1995 to 2010 In 2016, the import of pork reached 1.6 million tons, more than the sum of 2011-2013 In addition to 2016, a large number of foreign pig offal imports are higher than frozen pork imports The import of pork and pig products has an increasing impact on the domestic market For example, pork imports remained high in 2013 and 2014, which prolonged the time of domestic pig prices wandering at the bottom of the valley, prolonged the loss period of farmers, intensified the irrational reduction of production capacity, and led to the surge of pig prices in the next cycle 4SS trend and challenge 5: green trade barrier is an obstacle to the export of Chinese meat products 4SS China's agricultural trade volume is huge, and it has become the world's largest importer and second largest trading country of agricultural products At present, China is the world's largest buyer of agricultural products such as soybeans, sugar and cotton 4SS the trade friction between China and the United States caused by the United States American agriculture is a severely affected area China is the world's largest importer of agricultural products, and the United States is the world's largest exporter of agricultural products China and the United States have different endowments of agricultural resources, and the trade of agricultural products is highly complementary In 2017, China imported US $24.12 billion of agricultural products from the United States, accounting for 19.2% of China's total imports of agricultural products, and China's trade deficit with the United States reached US $16.38 billion 4SS US $200 billion tax list includes most of China's aquatic products and fruits and vegetables exported to the US According to the tax list released by China, many agricultural products, such as soybeans, grains, cotton, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and nut products, and livestock products, are the focus of tax collection 4SS trend and challenge 6: zero emission, harmless and resource-based 4SS aquaculture is becoming more and more strict in environmental protection, which is the most serious in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Shanxi and other places There is no doubt that the impact of environmental protection policies on the breeding industry is huge Under the forced shutdown and forced demolition of some local governments, "environmental pressure" has made many farmers suffer huge losses, but not all demolition and shutdown have given appropriate subsidies For some enclosures with incomplete certificates, some of them are demolished without knowledge, which causes great losses to the farmers 4SS on January 1, 2015, the new environmental protection law was officially implemented The law has greatly strengthened the punishment of polluting enterprises The implementation of the new environmental protection law will significantly increase the proportion of environmental protection cost in the cost of pig breeding After investigation, a large-scale breeding farm with 4000 sows can be built, with an environmental protection investment of up to 20 million yuan The average small pig farm can't afford such an expensive cost 4SS trend and challenge 7: in 2020, the feed end will be completely banned, and the breeding end will be reduced and restricted What kind of impact will be brought to the feed industry and the breeding industry? 4SS 1 The production level of the breeding industry will be reduced, and the breeding cost will be greatly increased; 4s2 The lack of antibiotics in feed may result in a large increase in the amount of antibiotics used for treatment on the farm, and the total amount of antibiotics used in animal husbandry may not decrease in the early stage of "feed antibiotic prohibition" 4SS trend and challenge 8: overcapacity 4SS almost all industries in China have overcapacity, and the market of agriculture, animal husbandry and food industry will also be overcapacity Feed production capacity has been surplus, and breeding scale is also surplus Now there is still room for large-scale production capacity It depends on how to compete with small-scale cost? The final competition is product cost competition I have repeatedly stressed that scale does not mean modernization 4SS from China's lysine production capacity to China's feed production capacity serious excess law, from the industry's common problem of floating air dryness, China's pig production capacity will be surplus in less than three years Thanks for the low price of pigs this year, otherwise the consequences will be unimaginable 4SS trend and challenge 9: the rise of bio fermented feed 4SS if the feed before the 1960s was the first generation of mixed feed, the second generation of compound feed in the 1970s, the third generation of full price nutritious compound feed in the 1980s, the fourth generation of bio fermented feed is now emerging Biological feed is a general term for safe, efficient, environmentally friendly and residue free high-quality feed and feed additive products developed by means of genetic engineering, protein engineering, fermentation engineering and biological extraction In the future, biological feed will occupy a more important position in feed market How will 4SS fermented feed change the feed breeding industry? Now the traditional mode of feed breeding industry is: feed processing enterprises purchase feed raw materials and process them into feed, and then sell them to farms The resulting secondary transportation, processing, sales, packaging, loss and profit increase the breeding cost by about 500 yuan / ton The modern mode is: the feed processing site is transferred from the feed factory to the breeding farm, and the cost of feed will be reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton by one-time transportation, biological processing, reduction of sales, packaging, loss, energy consumption, additives, etc 4SS trend and challenge 10: as we all know, at the crossroads between the state and the people, private enterprises in listed companies have dropped more than 80% of the issue price The stock has fallen more than 15% of the pledge line Now many private enterprises in China start to ask state-owned enterprises to provide for themselves This is the first crossroad we see, that is, to move forward, are you a private or state-owned enterprise? 4SS In the past few years, there have not been many things for private enterprises to provide for themselves Where did this turning point start? In fact, it started from Vanke, which opened the way for large private enterprises to return to local state-owned enterprises In the future, will your business be a country or a people? Everyone may have such a choice 4SS to sum up - it's not your opponents that beat you, your peers that subvert you, and it's not your times that get rid of you, but your traditional thinking and relatively backward concepts 4SS II New thinking 4SS new thinking I: strengthen the ecological agriculture of more than 1 billion people in several generations