Yao Min-servant: The influence of African swine fever and the precise positioning of agricultural and pastoral enterprises in the new era.

. This article is from the China Feed Industry Information Network from "Where to Go." AWA big winner FF assistant village revitalization annual meeting" on the report, Zhengda Group senior vice chairman Yao Min-servant known as "the godfather of China's agricultural industry management", he summarized the ten trends and challenges of China's agriculture, we should have new thinking and new strategies, he also summarized the enterprise life of the twelve-word policy "
cash for the king, hard work, retain talent
."First, China's new agricultural trends and challenges
trends and challenges one: economic uncertainty1, Sino-US trade friction sourcing.2. China's traditional growth model, which used government investment as the engine of economic growth, has been greatly challenged.the root cause of this situation is: investment-driven economic development to create a high house price.3, African swine fever. In China, African swine fever has spread to three municipalities in 16 provinces
at a rate of 50 kilometers per day
. In the 1970s, the virus spread in Europe, only a year spread 100 kilometers, we spread thousands of kilometers in three months, swine fever is 100% of the death rate, no cure, can only be killed. China has hundreds of millions of pigs, and if they are killed, they will cost trillions of dollars.the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned China in its March report "The Threat to China from African Swine Fever" that an outbreak of African swine fever in the eastern Russian city of Irkusk in March 2017, just 1,000 kilometers from the Chinese border. The report says swine fever entering China will be devastating for animal safety, food security and food security. Because they know. Once in China, it will be out of control, the only way is to guard against the border. But somehow, the fact is that it took nearly a year and a half to
swine fever to china from Russia, and only three months in China.August 24, the People's Daily online retweeted an article entitled "African swine fever does not infect people, pork can be eaten with confidence", suggesting that sick pork can be eaten.
more serious is that subsidies to farmers are not in place is the main cause of the spread of swine fever in Africa
. If you don't subsidize effectively, pig farmers won't honestly report swine fever and instead step up selling sick pigs to reduce their losses. So you can effectively prevent blocking? The beginning of the food chain is the countryside, and the individual farmers are the most difficult to survive, a little turbulence they have no return, they for a small number of benefits are worth the risk.
trends and challenges ii: industrialization is both a development prospect and a .Throughout the agricultural development trajectory of developed countries, industrialization is the only way. From raw material cultivation to feed industry, and then to the food industry, from animal energy to human energy.agricultural industrialization is like a "golden doll", as long as the operation is proper, from head to toe have money to earn. But it is not easy to hold it tight, to link all links to form a chain, need to do a lot of work, there must be a sound and efficient social service system.the Dutch flower industry is world famous, but flowers expensive in a "fresh" word, so the operating system requirements are particularly high, from cultivation, production, grading, preservation, packaging, to transport and sales, any link of the omission, can cause devastating losses. Their flower auction and distribution system is the most efficient in the world. Without such an efficient service system, the Dutch flowers, it is difficult to achieve today's hot industry, not to lead the world's new flower trend.
industrialization is a beautiful trap, scale is not the same as modernization.
scale is the means, modernization is the goal, how to sacrifice natural resources, pollution of the environment at the expense of the "linear economy" to "circular economy" transformation.an important symbol of agricultural modernization, that is, with advanced means of production and science and technology to equip agriculture, greatly improve agricultural production and agricultural labor productivity. Therefore, it is necessary to use modern science and technology to realize the fundamental change of traditional agricultural production.emphasize sanding on cooperation between enterprises and give full play to their respective advantages.
trend and challenge three: the low-cost development of poultry meat will continue to challenge the pork prices.　　China's poultry production is growing faster than pork, thanks to the efficiency the poultry industry provides to producers and consumers. At present, China's various animal protein production industry, poultry production of the highest level of industrialization. According to the analysis, China's current per capita consumption of poultry meat is still at a low level, the younger generation of Chinese more and more accept poultry products, which makes it possible for the poultry industry to gain a higher market share. Most of the growth has come from emerging fast food services and fast-refrigerated/processed foods. globally, the global poultry industry is showing "phenomenal" growth, with global poultry production expected to exceed pork production by

2030. On the demand side, global demand for chicken has grown by 91 per cent over the past two decades, at an average annual rate of 3.5 per cent, and is expected to increase by another 30 per cent in a decade' time.
Trends and Challenge IV: The prices of imported pork, especially pork by-products, will continue to challenge the domestic pork prices.　　From 2011 to 2013, China's imports of pork and pig products continued to increase steadily, with a cumulative total of 1.57 million tons of frozen pork imports, more than the total imports from 1995 to 2010.
imported 1.6 million tons of pork in 2016, more than in 2011-13 combined.
With the exception of 2016, a large number of foreign pig imports are higher than frozen pork imports. Imports of pork and pig products are increasingly affecting the domestic market. For example, pork imports remained high in 2013 and 2014, prolonging the period of domestic pig prices hovering at the bottom, prolonging the period of losses for farmers, exacerbating the irrational reduction of production capacity, leading to a surge in pig prices in the next cycle.
Trends and Challenge V: Green trade barriers are obstacles to China's meat exports.　　China's agricultural trade volume is huge, has become the world's largest importer of agricultural products and the second largest agricultural products trading countries. At present, soybeans, sugar, cotton and other agricultural products, China is the world's largest buyer. U.S.-China trade frictions provoked by the U.S., U.S. agriculture is the hardest hit.
China is the world's largest importer of agricultural products and the United States is the world's largest exporter of agricultural products.
different agricultural resource endowments in China and the United States, agricultural trade is highly complementary. In 2017, China imported 24.12 billion U.S. dollars in agricultural products from the U.S., accounting for 19.2% of China's total agricultural imports, and China's trade deficit with U.S. agricultural products amounted to 16.38 billion U.S. dollars. the $200 billion U.S. tax list includes the vast majority of our exports of aquatic and fruit and vegetable products to the United States. Soybeans, grains, cotton, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and nut products, livestock products and many other agricultural products are the focus of the tax, according to China's list of taxes.
Trends and Challenge sycinned six: zero emissions from aquaculture, harmless, resource-based .　　The environmental protection of the aquaculture industry is becoming more and more strict, belonging to Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Shanxi and other places the most serious. There is no doubt that the impact of environmental protection policies on the aquaculture industry is huge, in some local governments forced work, demolition and other operations, "environmental protection high pressure" so that many farmers suffer huge losses, but not all demolition and work stoppages to give appropriate subsidies. For some of the documents are not complete lying in the enclosure is unknowingly the demolition of farmers caused a great deal of damage. January 1, 2015 the new Environmental Protection Law was officially implemented, the law on the punishment of polluting enterprises greatly strengthened, the implementation of the new environmental protection law will make environmental protection costs in the proportion of pig breeding costs will be significantly increased, after investigation, the construction of a 4000 breeding sow scale farm, environmental protection investment of up to 20 million yuan. The average small pig farm can't afford such an expensive cost.
trends and challenges 7: 2020 feed end comprehensive ban, breeding end reduction, limit resistance .　　Feed end "prohibition resistance", breeding end "reduce resistance, limit resistance" the general trend has been determined, will give the feed industry and aquaculture industry what kind of impact? 1, the level of aquaculture production will decline, the cost of breeding will increase significantly; 2, the non-addition of antibiotics in the feed may cause a large increase in the use of antibiotics for on-site treatment in breeding, the total use of antibiotics in animal husbandry may not decrease in the early stage of "feed ban".
Trends and Challenge 8: Overcapacity .　　Almost all of China's industries are overcapacity, and the agricultural and animal husbandry food industry is oversupplied. Feed capacity has been excess, breeding scale is also excess, now the scale of capacity and space, it depends on the small-scale cost competition? The final competition is the competition of product cost. I have repeatedly stressed that scale does not represent modernization. from China's lysine capacity to China's feed production capacity serious excess law, from the industry's airy general disease, China's pig production capacity will be overcapacity in three years. Thanks for this year's low pig prices, otherwise the consequences are unimaginable.
Trends and Challenge 9: The rise of bio-fermented feed .　　If the feed before the sixties is the first generation of mixed feed, the seventies is the second generation of cooperative feed, the 1980s is the third generation of full-price nutrition with feed,
is now emerging is the fourth generation - bio-fermented feed
. Biofeed refers to the products of safe, efficient, environmentally friendly and non-residual high-quality feed and feed additives developed by means of genetic engineering, protein engineering, fermentation engineering and bioextraction. In the future, biofeed will play an even more important role in the feed market. How will fermented feed change the feed farming industry? Now the traditional model of the feed farming industry is: feed processing enterprises to purchase feed raw materials processed into feed, feed and then sold to farms, resulting in secondary transport, processing, sales, packaging, loss, profit and other increase dating costs of 500 yuan / ton. The modern model is: feed processing site from feed plant to farm, one transport, biological processing, reduce sales, packaging, loss, energy consumption, additives, etc. will
to reduce the cost of feed 300 to 500 yuan / ton.
Trends and Challenge seis: the crossroads of nations and people.　　As we all know, now listed companies in private enterprises fell below the issue price of more than 80%. Stocks fell below the pledge line of more than 15%, now many private enterprises in China began to ask for state-owned enterprises, this is the first crossroads we see, that is, go forward, you are private or state-owned enterprises? in the past many years, private enterprises to foster things are not a lot, this turning point from where to start? In fact, from Vanke began, opened a large private enterprises to return to the local state-owned enterprises. Will your business be the last name of the country or the people in the future? Everyone may have that choice.
the above - it's not your opponent that beats you, it's not your peers that you're uptosoning, it's not the times, it's your traditional thinking and the relatively backward ideas that are beating you.
II, new thinking
new thinking one: strengthen ecological agriculture the hard work of more than a billion people in generations, a trade war, only to find that agriculture is still our weakness; although the overall solution to the problem of eating, but China each person imports 200 pounds of grain per year, but also imported a large number of pork, cotton and other agricultural products; China imports 130 million tons of grain per year, of which 97 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 64% of the world's soybean exports; the number of agricultural workers in the United States is just 2.422 million. During the same period, the number of agricultural workers in China was 219.19 million (2015 data).
the four pillars that underpin American agriculture: scale, mechanization, chemistry, biotechnology, .　　But is American agriculture really invincible?
behind the bright ness of American agriculture, in fact, hidden is "high input, high consumption, high pollution, high risk, high subsidies" of the huge hidden worry. in addition to the "five highs" mentioned above, U.S. agriculture is also because of excessive reliance on fertilizers and pesticides, soil deterioration and serious environmental pollution. Fertilizer pollution is common in 31 U.S. states, with 3.1 billion tons of soil lost each year in one state alone, and the topsoil of farmland in the Midwest, which used to be 1.8 meters deep, is now only 0.2 meters. U.S. agriculture relies on chemical fertilizers, pesticides, pesticides, herbicides, high input in exchange for high output, in violation of the agricultural nature of natural reproduction and economic reproduction, inevitably resulting in environmental pollution, soil erosion, increased resistance to pests and diseases, variety of resources, and so on. the "input-output ratio" on land does not increase or decrease after the marginal effect is reached. The story of Valley farmers, valley stows is still playing out, but this time it's the whole planet. Chinese agriculture has to be a choice? how should Chinese agriculture choose? You have to choose the U.S. model?—— is completely unnecessary!
Chinese agriculture has only one mission, which is to feed itself.
is the most convincing: the most developed, most sports- and health-care-spending, the most developed pharmaceutical industry in the United States, life expectancy is not up to. China mimics American and Western agriculture, the United States and the West are beginning to look back at ancient China. Whether Japan, the Netherlands, France, Israel, and even the United States, the rising ecological agriculture has the shadow of ancient Chinese agriculture, that is, the United States, the proportion of organic agriculture has risen.