World feed trade and China's Countermeasures

Introduction: 1 Analysis of feed trade after China's accession to WTO By analyzing the world trade of protein feed, we selected 31 representative countries and regions, such as China, India, Malaysia, Japan, Kuwait, Thailand and other countries in Asia; Canada, the United States, Brazil, Argentina in North and South America; Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Poland in Europe; and Australia, Africa In order to reflect comprehensively and concretely as much as possible, we analyzed it with the latest data 2 International trade of fish meal and future countermeasures 1 The use and trade of fish meal in China: since 1980s, the use of fish meal has been popularized in China Until 1990s, farmers did not accept the compound feed without fishmeal smell Today, we publicize the benefits of fish meal free feed In fact, this was an economic problem At that time, the profits of the laying industry were very high, enterprises did not pay attention to costs, and farmers were also restricted by science and culture At present, the profits of laying hens are falling again and again It is natural to promote fish meal free feed Of course, we still need fish meal, but the scope of use is focused on high-end products and improving efficiency, for example, high price fish and shrimp feed 2 Fish meal production in the world: the total input of fish meal raw materials in the world is 26.271 million tons, which is restricted by marine resources Not all countries produce or use fish meal, and developed countries in animal husbandry rely on imports The main production area of fish meal is not developed countries, its output only accounts for 30.9% of the world's total output; the 12 countries of the European Community only account for 7.2% of the total output On the contrary, the fish meal output of non developed countries is 18.161 million tons, accounting for 69.1% of the world's fish meal output The main production area of fish meal is South America and the Caribbean, with a total output of 12.859 million tons, accounting for 48.9% of the total Asian and European countries account for 22.9% and 21.6% of total production The world's fish meal producing countries are very concentrated In 1999, the largest fish meal producing countries were Peru, with an annual output of 6.999 million tons, accounting for 26.6% of the world's total production; Chile, 5.034 million tons, accounting for 19.2%; China, 2.751 million tons, accounting for 10.5%; Denmark, 1.51 million tons, accounting for 5.75%; Iceland, 1.462 million tons, accounting for 5.6%; Japan, 1.2 million tons, accounting for 4.6%; and Norway accounts for 4.6%; the United States and Russia each account for 3.8% The above countries have accounted for about 90% of the total, and other countries are very limited China is also a country rich in marine resources, but due to the lack of ecological protection, resources are increasingly exhausted and production is declining When dried fish meal is made from fish meal raw materials, it is roughly reduced to a quarter 3 The pattern of world fish meal trade: in 1997, the global fish meal trade situation was as follows: 4.697 million tons of imported fish meal; 4.493 million tons of exported fish meal; accounting for 69.6% and 66.6% of fish meal production respectively It seems that fish meal is different from other feed resources, and its production target is mainly for commodity export There are many importing countries, but not many exporting countries It is mainly concentrated in several countries with rich marine resources With the transformation of the traditional animal husbandry, the number of fish meal used began to increase Later, with the development of science and technology, relying on cheap plant protein, improving the conversion efficiency, gradually reducing the use of high-priced fish meal Even so, the developed countries still import 2.689 million tons, accounting for 57.2% of the world's dry fish meal imports, which is still very large What is puzzling is that they rely on both imports and exports of fish meal It seems that experts in international trade of agricultural products also need to help us to study and make wise decisions 4 Analysis of the export countries of fish meal in the world: the export countries of fish meal are very limited In 1997 (FAO data), the order of fish meal exporting countries was as follows: 1.884 million tons in Peru, accounting for 41.9% of the world's total production; 2.929 million tons in Chile, accounting for 20.7%; 3.287 million tons in Denmark, accounting for 638%; 4.257000 tons in Germany, accounting for 5.72% The second is Iceland, 253000 tons, accounting for 5.6%; Norway, 198000 tons, accounting for 4.4% The United States has 112000 tons, accounting for 2.5% Other countries are very limited, accounting for less than 1.0% China also exports 20000 tons, accounting for 0.43% of the world's exports It seems that the fish meal trade market has a great monopoly Developed countries import 2.688 million tons of fish meal, accounting for 57.2% of the total imports The developed countries also exported 3.024 million tons of fish meal, accounting for 67.3% of the total export volume The production and export of fish meal in Asia and Africa are not much, accounting for 23% and 2.3% of the production respectively Exports account for 1.8 and 1.4 per cent per year This shows that the world's fish meal is produced in South America, processed and used in developed countries, and the purchase market is in Asian countries, accounting for 50% of the total import Some developed countries are engaged in the production and trade of fish meal, and their export volume of fish meal is far greater than the output It can be seen from the typical German analysis that the self-produced fish meal is 14500 tons, the imported fish meal is 333000 tons, and the exported fish meal is 257000 tons Obviously, they are engaged in the processing trade of fish meal The imported fish meal in Germany is an average of 523.4 US dollars per ton, the exported fish meal is an average of 621.3 US dollars per ton, and the foreign exchange is 22.85 million US dollars Denmark's export earned US $199 million, import expenditure 58 million and foreign exchange 140 million Similar countries include the Netherlands, Argentina, Australia and other countries For fish meal trade, there is "import and export" In general, the export price of fish meal in South America is less than 540 US dollars per ton; in developed countries, the price of fish meal is more than 620 US dollars In 1997, the average import price of fish meal in China was 655.3 US dollars, which was obviously on the high side Of course, the variety and quality are related, but China should also consider reducing the market import price of fish meal This year, the price of fishmeal in China has fallen, and the retail price is about 615 US dollars According to the output, China has no conditions for exporting fish meal However, after China's accession to the WTO, it is not without conditions to manage fish meal Participation in fishing and processing in South America and Africa can also be considered, as China is the world's largest importer 5 World fish meal import and market situation: the purpose of studying the world fish meal import is to analyze the purchase market competing with us There are many countries that import fish meal, and the 31 countries we count account for 73.4% of the total imports, which shows that the importing countries are not only big countries, but also many countries rely on international fish meal to balance their own fish meal consumption From the perspective of 31 major countries, the first is China, with an import volume of 1.334 million tons; the second is Japan, with an import volume of 465000 tons; the third is Germany, with an import volume of 333000 tons; the fourth is Britain, with an import volume of 296000 tons; the fifth is Norway, with an import volume of 190000 tons; the second is Canada, Italy, the United States and the Netherlands, with an import volume of 90000-100000 tons Denmark, France, Australia and Russia import 50000-90000 tons In fact, only China accounts for the largest proportion of imports, reaching 28.4%, which is equivalent to the total amount of 12 countries in the European community Japan is only within 10% 6 Development strategy of China's fish meal feed: in 1997, the raw material output of China's fish meal was 2.751 million tons, and the dried fish meal was 556000 tons, accounting for 8.3% of the world's dried fish meal output The quality of domestic fishmeal is poor and its reputation is low In addition to the backward processing technology and serious adulteration, another important reason is the poor quality of raw materials for fish meal production, most of which are aquatic waste China's "fish is fish" resources, it is a small upper middle fish, the average body length of 12 cm, mainly distributed in China's offshore It is said that the number of resources reaches 3 million tons, which can form a fishing capacity of 500000 tons per year and produce 100000 tons of fish meal and 20000 tons of fish oil, without affecting the resources The author believes that China's fish meal production is also to be able to have room for bargaining in the international market, and the output is unlikely to be very large And it should be developed in a controlled way, not neglecting ecology It seems that after China's accession to the WTO, the first step is: we should establish a long-term trade relationship in the international trade of fishmeal; strengthen domestic publicity and interpretation, and use fishmeal in a controlled and targeted way Step 2: China is establishing a good trade relationship with South America, and it is possible to invest in cooperative fishing and develop fish meal production In addition, it is possible to form a stable supply of fish meal through international competitive procurement, so as to reduce the cost of protein feed and enhance the competitiveness and voice of China's livestock products in the international market It is certainly better than "self-reliance" Of course, the best choice is "two ends out", import fish meal, export high-grade fish and shrimp products, including special flavor food, animal products, medical products, etc At present, according to the output and consumption, China does not have the conditions to export fish meal independently However, after China's accession to the WTO, it is not without conditions to manage fish meal The world's fish meal resources are produced in South America, and the purchase market is in Asian countries, which account for 50% of the total imports China is the largest importer in the world Why can't we participate in international operations, invest in fishing and processing in South America and Africa, and purchase from joint ventures? There is no risk for both sides In 1997, we paid 874 million US dollars in foreign exchange for import I think it's possible to save half of the foreign exchange through international cooperative development We should pay special attention to our advantage of 30 million Chinese overseas "Three in one" is a favorable and desirable strategy for overseas development China can become a big country in the world's processing and manufacturing industry The status of cotton cake in the world feed trade: the protein content and quality of cotton cake are not as good as soybean cake, but it is protein feed after all In China, where meat production accounts for a quarter of the world's total, it should not be ignored Animal products need plant protein too much We need to take some resources seriously According to the analysis of 31 representative countries, the total output of cotton cake is 8.727 million tons, accounting for 69.7% of the world's total output of 12.517 million tons Therefore, the analysis results basically represent the global cotton cake trade This shows that the cotton cake trade is mainly between the big and developed countries, they have their own trade circle In 1999, the world imported 648000 tons of cotton cakes and exported 561000 tons, accounting for 5.18% and 4.48% of the total respectively It seems that the world's cotton cakes are mainly used by countries themselves, and trade accounts for only about 5% of the output Because the cotton cake comes from the cotton processing, can produce cotton and the processing country is limited, the industrial utilization of resources is very poor, so it is not the main body of trade More than 70% of the production and trade of cotton cakes are in developing countries, especially in Asia In the future, China's trade relations mainly deal with these countries 2 The world's cotton cake export trade: the largest cotton cake export is from Asia and Africa In 1999, Asia exported 145000 tons, accounting for 25.9% of the world's exports Africa exports 129000 tons, accounting for 23.0% of the world's exports According to the country, only the United States exports 120000 tons, accounting for 21.5% of the world; China exports 91000 tons, accounting for 16.3%; Argentina exports 75000 tons, accounting for 13.3% of the world The influence of cotton cake in the world trade is not big, and it is relatively scattered 3 World cotton cake import trade: the world's largest cotton cake import is from non developed countries In 1999, 414000 tons were imported, accounting for 63.8% of the world's total imports Developed countries also import, but the quantity is not large, accounting for 36.2% of the import It seems that the use of cotton cakes is mainly in a few countries Probably mainly used in cattle and sheep feed According to the law of import, the main purpose of using cotton cake is to figure out its low price Vegetable protein can also be obtained The average export price of cotton cake is only 119 US dollars, 35% cheaper than that of bean cake 4 China's cotton cake import and export countermeasures: in terms of the export price of China's cotton cake in 1999, the average price per ton is 86 US dollars, far below the international market In China, we don't pay much attention to cotton cakes Some places don't think that cotton cakes are refined feed, especially for beef cattle In fact, according to this export price,