"Wolf" smoke revives in domestic corn market

Introduction: Recently, according to the information released by the U.S Department of agriculture, the Chinese government purchased up to 500000 tons of corn from private dealers in the United States In this regard, China Jilin grain group (JGG) said that international buyers cancelled the contract for the sale of 1 million tons of corn Two news came one after another that we had not expected Although we do not know the real situation, we have collected them through various parties The data shows that this information has basically become a reality At present, it is only more than ten days before China's official accession to the WTO On the eve of China's official accession to the WTO, when the domestic corn market is operating at a low price, why does it operate so? What are the intentions of the Chinese government, how will it affect the domestic market, and how will China's corn market develop in the future Exhibition, this series of problems are worth our in-depth analysis and research What is the intention of the Chinese government: in the agreement on China's accession to the WTO, we can see that the opening range China has promised is quite large This is beyond the imagination of many people in the domestic economic circles before this, but the dialectics of concession is embodied here You will benefit immediately and I will benefit for a long time We should be able to read such information in the versions of the China US agreement and the China EU agreement China's accession to the WTO will be fully launched on December 11 The government has protective policies for the telecommunications and automobile industries The financial industry stipulates that foreign enterprises cannot hold 50% of the shares For agriculture, the degree of openness is the largest among all industries, and thus the impact is the largest As China is a large agricultural country, the number of farmers is 800 million If we do not prevent it, we will face the unemployment of many farmers These farmers will flow into the cities and towns, resulting in a large number of cheap labor force, increasing urban pressure, and the income of farmers will be seriously damaged However, from the analysis of the administrative strategy of the Chinese government, China's policy has always been forward-looking, stability and unity are the basic guidelines, and the establishment of a stable economic development pattern is the basic policy Take the recent China's securities industry as an example In order to mitigate the huge impact of China's accession to the WTO on the securities industry, the Chinese government released the WTO crisis ahead of time Although it caused some losses, it did alleviate the financial crisis after China's accession to the WTO It can be said that the Chinese government will also take corresponding policies on the food issue, and the Chinese government has the ability to take this policy For a while, the soybean genetically modified regulation was a case in point From a personal point of view, the Chinese government's import of corn means to prevent in advance The Chinese government promised to import 5.85 million tons of corn after its accession to the WTO This time, the Chinese government imported 500000 tons of corn before its official accession to the WTO, mainly considering the following aspects: on the one hand, sincerity We will actively fulfill our WTO commitments, so that China can smoothly implement the relevant provisions of the agreement after its official accession to the WTO, and make basic preparations for long-term development On the other hand, pressure buffering This can ease the pressure of large-scale imports into the WTO According to the agreement, China will import 5.85 million tons of corn China has always occupied the position of a big corn exporter Last year, China exported 10 million tons of corn After entering the WTO, China will cancel the high export subsidies It is impossible to export a large amount of corn The export trade is facing a dilemma, and the trade pattern will change The circulation pattern of transportation will be broken, which is a serious problem for the domestic corn market However, corn, as the main agricultural product in China, plays an important role in the agricultural development The state will not let the flow, look at it, listen to it, or fall away, but for the domestic corn market after China's accession to the WTO Market can be prepared to create an environment One of the purposes of a small number of imports before China's accession to the WTO is that the market will not be unprepared in the face of the reversal of the flood On the other hand, wait and see Although we have a deep and rational understanding of China's accession to the WTO for a long time and have done a lot of preparatory work in the process of planning, careful planning and full preparation are not necessarily equal to a complete victory in reality The import of 500000 tons of corn is only a preview for us to meet the challenge of China's accession to the WTO, so we can observe what we have done after the import of domestic corn market So as to make corresponding countermeasures for the huge import pressure after China's accession to the WTO Above all, although the import of 500000 tons will cause some spot pressure on the domestic corn market, and it is likely to cause further exploration of corn prices, from the perspective of development, it is also an opportunity for the domestic corn market to see the severe form of WTO entry Later market development trend: China's corn market is really like ice As soon as the market price falls, it will fall again The average transaction price (the same below) of northern Jilin has fallen to 1000 yuan / ton, nearly 50 yuan / ton lower than the previous period The price of Heilongjiang is 980 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the previous period The average price of second-class corn in Southern Fujian is 1120 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous period The average closing price of port dalian is 10 yuan 60 yuan / ton, the prices of Henan, Zhengzhou and Shanxi in other regions are 950 yuan / ton, 1060 yuan / ton and 1030 yuan / ton respectively, which is equal or slightly lower than the previous period In recent years, the main pressure faced by the domestic corn market is the large-scale listing of new grains The market of new grains has increased the supply quantity of the market, increased the proportion of supply and demand, and the price has been continuously reduced At present, the domestic corn market has just recovered, and the bad news about the sale of 1 million tons of corn by Jilin grain group and the purchase of 500000 tons of American corn by the Chinese government continues to come out Although the price hasn't been fed back, it is expected that corn prices will fall again in the later period The main performance is as follows: first of all, the news makes the insiders worry about how to develop corn in the future In the production area, China exported 10.47 million tons of corn last year, and 4.86 million tons of corn as of October this year Although the export volume is significantly lower than that of last year, it is still relatively large In the same period, due to the restrictions of our government, only a small amount of corn for processing raw materials is allowed to be imported In the first half of this year, only 10000 tons are imported After China's accession to the WTO, China will import 5.85 million tons of corn according to the GATT, with a high amount of compensation However, before China's accession to the WTO, 500000 tons of corn will be purchased in China, which is a shock to the production areas In the later stage, the export volume will be significantly reduced, the price promotion power will be weakened, and in the later stage, the export will face difficulties, the import volume will increase sharply, the market will be under pressure and the price will fall, and the traditional pattern of grain circulation of "northern grain transported to the South" will be broken, instead of "Southern grain transported to the north but not exported" ”With the emergence of the new pattern, the grain sales in the production areas are facing a dilemma, and the overstock of the inventory will be serious, and a series of problems appear one after another, which worries the production areas The market area and the country's opening up of imports will change the direction of purchasing, that is, reducing the purchase of corn in the north and increasing the purchase of imported corn Foreign corn will gradually win most market shares with its high quality and low price, which will crowd out corn in the north However, how the market develops is closely related to the policy orientation of the country In the early stage of WTO, the domestic market fluctuated It may be stronger, so in the face of the changing market situation, the waiting atmosphere in the sales area will be stronger, which will hinder the market circulation, while the sales area is worried Then, under the influence of two kinds of worry psychology of production and sales area, the falling atmosphere of corn will be more and more intense The sale back of 1 million tons of corn of Jilin grain group will increase the overstock of port inventory and increase the market supply of sales area With the 500000 tons of imported corn transported in the later period, the supply pressure of market will be increased again Under the joint action of several aspects, the price in the later period is likely to be increased again A downward trend How about the price in the short term: Although many bad positions surround the current corn market, the price will fall again, however, the bad positions are all positive, and the corn price will not fall significantly in the short term The analysis is as follows: 1 The substantial impact in the short term will not appear In the short term, the corn sold back and imported will not have a substantial impact on the market, and the most serious pressure on the price in the short term will be the bearish atmosphere in the market 2 The stage of demand growth will come At this time, at the end of the year, when the demand is also increasing, the demand of feed industry and breeding industry for corn will gradually increase, which will touch the price 3 The price ratio of wheat, rice and corn is reduced In the early stage, due to the high price of corn, the feed processing enterprises reduced the quantity of corn purchase, increased the purchasing power of wheat and rice, the demand decreased significantly, and the price also decreased along with it However, the development of the situation has two sides The increase of demand for wheat and rice stimulated the price rise, while the decrease of demand for corn led to the price fall This rise and fall makes the price comparison between the two sides gradually narrow, and the price advantage of corn appears again From the understanding of all regions, the demand for corn has picked up compared with the previous period, which plays a supporting role in the market 4 Transgenic regulations are good The genetically modified regulations issued in China in the early stage not only bring benefits to the soybean market, but also look more towards the corn market in China Because the corn produced in China is non transgenic corn, while the European Union and other countries still hold a negative attitude towards transgenic products, which brings happiness to the corn market in China, is conducive to the export of non transgenic corn in China, and enlarges the non transgenic corn and transgenic jade The price difference between rice promotes the overall market to go higher It can be seen that although we are facing challenges, the support from the rear is still strong It can be said that the corn market is likely to fall in the short term due to the bearish market, but the price drop will not be too large due to the support of favorable factors.