Will there be 88 million pigs in the country by 2021?

Recently, with the recovery of domestic pig production capacity, analysts believe that the overall price of pigs in 2021 is biased towards the down, but compared with normal years, the overall price of pigs in 2021 is still optimistic.
1 Supply and seasonal demand have driven up the recent rise in pig prices, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Information Center and Zhuo Tsing Information joint monitoring data, from late November 2020, the domestic pork price recovery momentum is more obvious.
as of the last week of 2020, the weekly average of the total factory price index of lean white-striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 45.37 yuan per kilogram, basically the highest level in 2020.
the general index of factory prices of lean meat-type white-striped pork, however, from the institutional analysis, the rise in pork prices at this stage is still related to seasonal fundamentals.
information center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pointed out in the weekly report that the end of the year is approaching, the scale of farms and farmers pig out of the column weight loss, out of the column enthusiasm is not high.
same time, the country's snow, high-speed closure or restrictions, hindering the transfer of pigs, supply reduction to support pig prices, driving pork prices with the rise.
Changjiang Securities Chen Jia, Li Qiuyan also pointed out in the report, the end of the year pig prices exceeded expectations of the rise mainly due to the outbreak of non-plague outbreaks in some areas since the fourth quarter of the second half of the domestic pork monthly imports fell, and the winter solstol after the strong demand for pickled bacon further exacerbated the end of the peak consumption season pork supply shortage, pig prices before the Spring Festival or continued upward.
" is currently facing the traditional seasonal peak season, the end market on pork consumption has a certain good supporting role, in the short term pig prices still have a high consolidation situation.
," Chen Xiaoyu, head of my agricultural network, told Xinhua.
, according to Chen Xiaoyu specifically, from the monthly changes in pork consumption, before the non-plague outbreak, the demand for traditional pork consumption in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half.
In terms of price changes, April is the month of seasonal decline in pig prices, August is the highest month, September began to weaken from strong, October-November is also a seasonal month of decline, December to January seasonal coefficient is higher.
" so, it is expected that from February this year, pig prices may fall significantly, August-September belongs to the traditional pig prices are strong months, pig prices will have a small rebound, the full-year pig price is expected to be 24.0 yuan - 25.0 yuan / kg.
" she believes that, combined with the current spot price, pig futures open benchmark price set at 28 yuan - 29 yuan / kg (28,000 yuan - 29,000 yuan / ton), is a more rational pricing.
22021 pig prices overall in line with the downward but still high although 24 yuan / kg or so of pig prices compared to 2017 and 2018 is still at a high level, but with the recovery of domestic pig production capacity, the overall trend of pig prices in 2021 is still biased towards the downtrend.
according to statistics from the State Information Center, pig stocks and sows have rebounded continuously since the fourth quarter of 2019, and by the end of the third quarter of 2020, they have recovered to about 84% of the highest stock in 2017.
Chen Jia, Li Qiuyan said in the report, although the current pig breeding industry production capacity continues to recover, but compared with the historical normal level of storage still exists a certain gap, and the three-yuan sow accounted for a relatively high, pig breeding industry is expected to be tight supply trend next year still exists.
"We estimate that the gap between supply and demand for pigs will still reach 0.88 billion pigs in 2021, and based on the linear model, the average price of pigs in 2021 will be 24.2 yuan/kg, which is still high compared with normal years."
" CITIC Futures Wang Congying also put forward in the listing opportunity outlook, the specific trend of pig prices to judge, the downward trend has become, there is no shortage of rebound during the period.
rebounded to 36 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival, then fell to 22 yuan/kg at the end of April 2021, then rebounded to 28 yuan/kg at the end of July, and then continued to fall as low as 13 yuan/kg.
average price in 2020, the pig price is expected to be 34 yuan/kg in 2020 and 25 yuan/kg in 2021.
chen Xiaoyu also said that from 2021, if the scope of non-plague impact is not expanded and effectively controlled, the number of pigs out of the column is expected to increase by more than 25% yoY in 2021, pork prices as a whole in a volatile mode of operation.
through our visit to understand that enterprises for 2021 pig spot price expectations, the overall trend is down, but still optimistic about the future pig price.
"3 is an important link connecting the futures market and the spot market to prepare the delivery link for the risk prevention exchange.
In order to be close to the spot habits, the index system of "Slim meat pig live quality assessment (GB/T32759-2016)", using simple and effective appearance, weight and other indicators to design the pig futures delivery quality index system.
As China's first live delivery varieties, pig futures to implement plate delivery and factory warehouse single delivery parallel delivery mode, daily selection of delivery and one-time delivery combined with the period of transfer delivery, to ensure the quality of delivery of pigs, improve delivery efficiency, and reduce the spread of disease.
addition, based on the sensitivity of pig prices, in order to guard against possible future risks, the big business is also well prepared. article 17 stipulates that
For pig futures contracts, when the exchange adjusts the range of the rise and fall of the board in accordance with the relevant provisions, it may adjust in one direction or two directions, in the same proportion or in different proportions; When adjusting trading margin in accordance with the relevant provisions, it may be adjusted unilaterally or bilaterally, in the same proportion or in different proportions, by some or all members.
" and in the two market-wide tests conducted on December 19 and December 26, 2020, in addition to verifying the listing of pig futures contracts and the parameter settings, the company also verified the setting of unilaterally increasing trading margin ("unilateral protection") in the relevant futures contracts, which means that unilateral protection will become an important emergency measure to prevent and control the risk of pig futures.
" pig did not list before large-scale aquaculture enterprises are doing soybean meal and corn hedging, because they are the main body to buy raw materials, do more operation, pig market after their products can lock in prices, will empty breeding profits.
" Chen Xiaoyu said that if the market believes that the future pig production capacity to resume pig prices fell, the industry will be in the futures market hedging, the distant moon will naturally form a discount.
" therefore, for pig futures listed on the first day of trading strategy, combined with the fundamentals of the status quo, comprehensive consideration of the non-plague epidemic and the impact of the new crown epidemic on market supply and demand, it is recommended to be far and near.
"