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After January to March, especially after the craziness after the Spring Festival, the pesticide market began to slowly cool down in April
.
In April, two-thirds of the time has passed, distributors have changed from active delivery to wait-and-see and wait
.
Everyone's judgment on the pesticide market was a voice in the first quarter, but different judgments are beginning to emerge.
Except for glufosinate-ammonium, which maintains a relatively strong market strategy, other products are ready to introduce policies
.
There are two main factors for the strength of glufosinate-ammonium: (1) Market capacity expansion-international and domestic demand is growing rapidly, especially the share of paraquat in the domestic market was quickly swallowed by glufosinate-ammonium in 2017, increasing user demand; (2) ) Insufficient supply of production capacity-the company's production capacity has not been fully released.
There are many 10,000-ton and 1,000-ton capacity plans in 2016, but it seems that not much has been achieved so far.
The market supply of glufosinate is slightly tight
.
After entering April, the tight supply of most technical products has been resolved by two main factors: (1) Market demand-the early stage is mainly affected by the environmental protection of the northern heating season (most of the pesticide production companies are located in Shandong and Hebei Such as provinces with winter heating), the technical and preparation enterprises have not done a good job in winter storage and production, resulting in short-term changes in supply and demand
.
It was originally a normal distribution, but because the original drug companies did not have the original drug inventory, the preparation companies could not get the original drug, and the preparations did not have inventory reserves, there has been a shortage of stocks that has not occurred in the pesticide industry for many years, but this phenomenon It is not caused by the increase in demand, so it slowly eased; (2) Conventional products are easy to reach production-there is demand in the market, and the production of conventional products can be rapidly increased by the original drug companies.
The domestic production capacity is already a lot.
For example, the price increase of pymetrozine between October 2016 and March 2017 is a very important factor because several large pymetrozine manufacturers have stopped production, but the equipment is there.
As long as the price rises, it will be sooner or later that it will be put into production.
Thing
.
Will the pesticide market in 2017 be a "two heavens of ice and fire"? Based on the above point of view, I personally believe that it is very possible, and this "double heaven" Feng Shui Ling is in the month from April 20 to May 20
.
Why is it during this time? Let's analyze
.
(1) The performance indicators of most pesticide companies in the first quarter will not be too bad, because that is the season for distribution, and distributors also need to put the goods in retail
.
(2) Entering April, especially after the second half of the year, the first round of distribution is over, the medication has just begun, and there is no need for a large amount of replenishment, and there will be short-term adjustments in delivery
.
(3) May is the beginning of the peak season for pesticide use.
Most crops from south to north need to be controlled for pests, diseases and weeds.
It is also the period for the second purchase on the channel.
The demand in early May determines the demand for most pesticide varieties.
Big and small years
.
(4) Pesticide companies will also start to drive market sales in May, will issue product policies for distributors, and will also cooperate with distributors to formulate some retail store sales promotion plans.
May is also the time for promotion activities and pilot demonstrations
.
(5) May is also a golden period for the production of technical materials before the midsummer
.
In short, April and May are critical periods for pesticide operators.
April and May this year are even more special.
They determine the trend of the pesticide market in 2017
.
.
In April, two-thirds of the time has passed, distributors have changed from active delivery to wait-and-see and wait
.
Everyone's judgment on the pesticide market was a voice in the first quarter, but different judgments are beginning to emerge.
Except for glufosinate-ammonium, which maintains a relatively strong market strategy, other products are ready to introduce policies
.
There are two main factors for the strength of glufosinate-ammonium: (1) Market capacity expansion-international and domestic demand is growing rapidly, especially the share of paraquat in the domestic market was quickly swallowed by glufosinate-ammonium in 2017, increasing user demand; (2) ) Insufficient supply of production capacity-the company's production capacity has not been fully released.
There are many 10,000-ton and 1,000-ton capacity plans in 2016, but it seems that not much has been achieved so far.
The market supply of glufosinate is slightly tight
.
After entering April, the tight supply of most technical products has been resolved by two main factors: (1) Market demand-the early stage is mainly affected by the environmental protection of the northern heating season (most of the pesticide production companies are located in Shandong and Hebei Such as provinces with winter heating), the technical and preparation enterprises have not done a good job in winter storage and production, resulting in short-term changes in supply and demand
.
It was originally a normal distribution, but because the original drug companies did not have the original drug inventory, the preparation companies could not get the original drug, and the preparations did not have inventory reserves, there has been a shortage of stocks that has not occurred in the pesticide industry for many years, but this phenomenon It is not caused by the increase in demand, so it slowly eased; (2) Conventional products are easy to reach production-there is demand in the market, and the production of conventional products can be rapidly increased by the original drug companies.
The domestic production capacity is already a lot.
For example, the price increase of pymetrozine between October 2016 and March 2017 is a very important factor because several large pymetrozine manufacturers have stopped production, but the equipment is there.
As long as the price rises, it will be sooner or later that it will be put into production.
Thing
.
Will the pesticide market in 2017 be a "two heavens of ice and fire"? Based on the above point of view, I personally believe that it is very possible, and this "double heaven" Feng Shui Ling is in the month from April 20 to May 20
.
Why is it during this time? Let's analyze
.
(1) The performance indicators of most pesticide companies in the first quarter will not be too bad, because that is the season for distribution, and distributors also need to put the goods in retail
.
(2) Entering April, especially after the second half of the year, the first round of distribution is over, the medication has just begun, and there is no need for a large amount of replenishment, and there will be short-term adjustments in delivery
.
(3) May is the beginning of the peak season for pesticide use.
Most crops from south to north need to be controlled for pests, diseases and weeds.
It is also the period for the second purchase on the channel.
The demand in early May determines the demand for most pesticide varieties.
Big and small years
.
(4) Pesticide companies will also start to drive market sales in May, will issue product policies for distributors, and will also cooperate with distributors to formulate some retail store sales promotion plans.
May is also the time for promotion activities and pilot demonstrations
.
(5) May is also a golden period for the production of technical materials before the midsummer
.
In short, April and May are critical periods for pesticide operators.
April and May this year are even more special.
They determine the trend of the pesticide market in 2017
.
