Will egg prices continue to rise?

 　　On August 23, the average price of eggs at the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was 10.
34 yuan/kg, a sharp increase of 17.
5% from 8.
8 yuan/kg on July 1
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that since August, the price of eggs nationwide has continued to rise
.
On August 15th, the national average wholesale egg price reached 10.
87 yuan per kilogram, the highest price this year, an increase of 18.
67% from the previous month and a 40.
99% increase over the same period last year
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Why did the price of eggs rise? Is the supply guaranteed? How will the prices go later? With these questions, the reporter interviewed relevant experts
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Why the price of eggs is going upZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　After New Year's Day this year, the wholesale price of eggs in the country has continued to rise, from 8.
45 yuan/kg on December 31 last year to 10.
64 yuan/kg on January 20 this year, a short-term increase of 25.
92%
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In mid-to-early January, the national egg price rose sharply, mainly due to tight supply
.
After May 2020, especially at the end of 2020 and early 2021, a large number of laying hens that are approaching the elimination period or entering the elimination period have been eliminated intensively, resulting in a continuous decline in the number of laying hens nationwide and a significant drop in egg production
.
In addition, due to the downturn in the egg market in 2020, layer farming has suffered significant losses.
In 2021, farms (households) have poor enthusiasm for replenishment and expansion, and new production capacity has decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2020, resulting in a decrease in egg market supply
.
The above-mentioned factors drove a sharp increase in the price of eggs at the beginning of this year
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The recent increase in egg prices is the result of a combination of many factors
.
" Zhu Ning, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and chief analyst of the early warning team of the agricultural product market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhu Ning, told reporters
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the perspective of supply, the high temperature weather in August caused a decline in laying hens, and the egg market was seasonally tight
.
From the perspective of demand, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, and the amount of eggs purchased by food processing plants has increased
.
In terms of production costs, global commodity prices have continued to be high this year, and the prices of layer feed and other raw materials have been at high levels, driving the price of eggs to rise
.
In addition, Henan, the main egg producing area, suffered floods and new changes in the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which indirectly affected layer breeding, egg export and market sales, resulting in a decrease in egg market supply and an increase in egg prices in the main sales area
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Guaranteed market supplyZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Price increases are often due to insufficient supply.
Although the current price of eggs has increased significantly, the supply is still guaranteed
.
" Zhu Ning said
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the first half of this year, there was a phenomenon worthy of attention in layer breeding, that is, the stock of layer hens continued to decline
.
Due to the high level of egg prices in January, laying hen farming has the highest profitability in nearly a year-it can make a profit of about 1 yuan per kilogram of eggs
.
Farms (households) generally prefer and delay scouring, and the elimination of laying hens has slowed down
.
The stock of laying hens nationwide in February was at a mid-to-high level in the same period of previous years, and the egg market was adequately supplied
.
Due to the oversupply, the national egg price continued to fall.
It reported 8.
21 yuan/kg on March 2nd, a sharp drop of 22.
84% from January 20th, and fell back to the level before New Year's Day
.
In addition, due to significant losses in layer breeding and high feed prices, layer farms (households) are more motivated to hunt for chickens in order to stop losses, leading to a continuous decline in the stock of layer hens in the first half of this year
.
At present, the national stock of laying hens has been reduced to about 1.
2 billion
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, the profitability of layer breeding has improved
.
Since April, the industry has turned losses into profits and has been profitable for 4 consecutive months
.
From April to July, the average profit per kilogram of eggs is 0.
76 yuan
.
After entering August, the profit of layer farming increased significantly due to the increase in egg prices.
As of August 19, the average profit of layer farms (households) per kilogram of eggs in August was 2.
46 yuan
.
“In previous years, August was mostly the profit period
for layer farms.
In August 2019, the average profit of layer farms per kilogram of eggs was 3.
76 yuan
.
Even in 2020, when the egg price market is relatively poor, the average price of layer farms in August A kilogram of eggs can also make a profit of 0.
67 yuan
.
The profit level in August this year was still good
.
" Zhu Ning said
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Ning said that the current stock level of laying hens is still at the upper-middle level in the same period of previous years, and the national egg supply is guaranteed
.
Regarding the trend of changes in the stock of laying hens in the later period, due to the profitability of laying hen farming in April, the enthusiasm of some farms (households) to replenish stocks increased slightly, resulting in a slow increase in the number of newly opened laying hens in July and beyond.
The stock of chickens has shown an increasing trend
.
It is expected that in the last four months of this year, the stock of laying hens and egg production will increase steadily, and the egg market supply in the future will also be guaranteed
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　How will egg prices go in the futureZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, global commodity prices continue to rise, will domestic egg prices continue to rise? Industry experts believe that it will not
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Ning said that before the National Day, egg prices were mainly affected by the demand for eggs, because the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approached, the purchase of eggs from food processing plants increased, and September was the school season, and the demand for fresh eggs increased
.
The apparent boost in egg demand after autumn will push egg prices higher, but the increase will be significantly lower than in August
.
After the National Day, there is a lack of positive factors in the short term, and the demand for eggs has been significantly reduced, and the weather has turned cooler, the laying performance of laying hens has recovered, and the supply of eggs will increase steadily
.
The price of eggs is likely to fall
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Liu Tong, manager of the statistics department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, told reporters that last week the price of eggs in the Beijing market had already loosened and dropped
.
On August 20, the average wholesale price of eggs in Xinfadi Market was 10.
14 yuan/kg, which was 5.
23% lower than the 10.
70 yuan/kg in the same period of the previous week, and the week-on-week decline was markedly lower
.
"Egg prices have already loosened, and there has been a significant decline, but this is only the beginning of the price decline, and it will continue to decline later
.
"ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　A laying hen farm told reporters that after the price of eggs rose in August, the eggs can be sold for a few dimes per catty for one day, and they can make tens of thousands of yuan in profits a day
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The egg price will continue to run at a high level in a short time
.
" Liu Tong reminded the chicken farm not to hesitate to sell, so as not to miss the opportunity to regret it
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Ning believes that in order to ensure a stable supply in the market, it is necessary to allow layer farmers to obtain reasonable profits, and the price fluctuations and fluctuations are not good
.
He suggested that farms (households) obtain early warning information on the egg market through websites, WeChat public accounts, etc.
, and adjust the stock of layer hens in a timely manner to avoid the impact of market risks
.
At the same time, in order to ensure the stable and healthy development of the industry, the government must further improve the emergency response mechanism, strengthen the construction of the policy system, increase the participation of layer practitioners in futures, and improve the early warning system for supply and demand in the egg market
.
ZLr China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry