Why does the spot price of egg futures deviate?

Recently, many consumers have discovered that eggs in the vegetable market have become more expensive

Egg futures are also an industry price indicator

The reporter learned during the interview that there is a seasonal pattern in egg consumption, and egg prices almost rise in July and August every year

"The trend of egg spot and futures is in line with the trend of the same period in history

From the perspective of supply, the stock of laying hens across the country was in a downward trend in the first half of this year

On the other hand, a variety of factors such as floods and epidemics have also contributed to a sharp rise in the spot market

An egg wholesaler told reporters that from a seasonal perspective, after the temperature drops in September, the laying rate of laying hens will gradually rise and the supply of eggs will increase steadily.

In the futures market, the current main force of egg futures is the September contract

For this trend, Hou Xiaorui analyzed that the futures market at the beginning of the year predicted that the stock of laying hens this year will be at a historically low level, and the supply and demand will be tightly balanced, so the premium given is relatively high

However, as the August egg futures contract entered the delivery month, the futures price moved closer to the spot price, and the trend of the futures price was basically synchronized with the trend of the spot price

"Actually, in the spot market rising in August every year, the futures market will go out of the post-holiday decline ahead of schedule, and the September contract will gradually turn from a premium to a discount

Regarding the market outlook, Hou Xiaorui believes that the spot price of eggs will still have room to rise in August, and the follow-up will mainly focus on whether the height and durability of the spot rise exceed market expectations