Who will be the first wave of fallen pig companies: the battle of costs

Don't know who's swimming naked until the tide recedes! If pig farmers do continue to expand capacity, companies that struggle to control costs may not be able to afford it at a time when the predictable fall in future market prices is coming.
analysts believe that with the outbreak of swine fever in Africa under effective control, anyone who raises pigs can make money because pig prices are now high.
the pig price fell, it is low cost to make money, high cost of loss, but also may fall to the industry as a whole.
"the best days for pig companies should be this year, and the days ahead will be more and more difficult.
" some analysts believe.
in the pig cycle, once the pig price through the peak continued to go down, the industry will inevitably enter the stage of technology, cost.
in pig farming costs, the procurement of large-scale enterprises have a slight advantage, but its various aspects of administrative costs will be high.
There are industry insiders to the reporter listed the data comparison: the current cost of pig farming, family farmers can reach about 7 to 8 yuan / catty cost; 5 yuan / catty; the existing large-scale breeding enterprises, part of which is relying on the original pig farm for breeding, its cost is about 7 yuan / catty, but if the pig farming enterprises rent pig bar to raise pigs, the cost will be relatively high, more than 8 yuan / catty.
Chenfeng, chief analyst of the national pig market in China, said that compared with the previous pig cycle, the current cost of raising pigs has increased, including feed costs, African swine plague prevention and other biosecurity costs.
this year, from the research of the situation, compared to the African swine fever epidemic, the average cost of pig out of the column is 100 to 300 yuan / head, breeding levels of different increases in costs are also relatively large differences.
rough calculation, since September 2020, although the national pig prices fell slightly, but still maintained at a high level of 34 yuan / kg or more, according to the full cost of 17 yuan / kg, out of the column weight of 120 kg, the average profit of the head can reach more than 2000 yuan.
Under the higher profit, the cost difference of about 200 yuan for a pig will not have much impact on different breeding enterprises, but once the pig cycle is over, pig prices continue to fall, even close to the average cost line, pig farming industry is bound to be turbulent.
interview process, all the interviewees are emphasizing that the pig industry has a high technical threshold, industry barriers are ultimately the performance of african swine fever control and breeding costs.
recent years, in addition to the original pig farming industry enterprises in the rapid expansion of production capacity, there are some real estate enterprises, Internet enterprises and other capital influx, pig farming industry threshold does not seem to really reflect.
Pan Guocheng, director and assistant secretary-general of the Yujiang District Pig Breeding Association in Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, said that the reason why a lot of capital is now entering the pig breeding industry, mainly high profits, even if a certain number of pigs lost due to the outbreak, there is still a profit.
in the next 3 to 5 years, the industry will appear a number of enterprises can not continue the situation.
Pan Guocheng said: "Now a lot of do not understand the line to come in to raise pigs, once the price of pigs fell below 8 pieces / catty, they will not be able to support."
in fact, the cost of raising pigs is still quite high, the risk is also very high, if there is no systematic technology, their cost control is even better than the family farm.
" reporter in the interview learned that the industry generally foreign capital into the pig industry has some concerns, think that in the pig cycle gradually towards the end of the process, the first can not carry these enterprises.
Open source securities analysis that, looking ahead to the downward cycle of pig prices, investment-related stocks should focus on high-quality pig enterprises with extreme cost advantages and management capabilities, high-speed expansion capacity expectations, the current head pig enterprises with a sound biosecurity system and management, with the certainty of expansion and a clear path of cost decline, is expected to achieve long-term growth.