Who kidnapped the trend of commodities: gold fell and oil rose

Introduction: as a currency, the dollar is tangible, but when it becomes the driving force of market ups and downs, it is invisible! L36 gold is down, gasoline is up, are you happy? L36 believes that this problem will make many people tangle During the Spring Festival, the international gold price fell unexpectedly and dragged down the domestic market to maintain a weak position so far, which made many investors who were bullish before the festival eat a stick And those who rush to the gold market are also uneasy If the "bottom copying" becomes the "bottom", is it not a big wrong? It's almost depressing for the car owners They just went to work after the new year and saw another increase in gasoline prices The international crude oil market, which was not paid much attention to in the past, is now affecting the nerves of more and more people L36 "it's all about the dollar." Analysts pointed out that, on the one hand, it is the priced currency of commodities, and there has been a significant negative correlation between the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar, and commodity prices for a long time, that is, the relationship between the ebb and flow; on the other hand, as one of the hedging options, the US dollar and gold and other varieties have the same trend If the "US dollar kidnapping commodity" is too exaggerated, one thing has to be admitted: it is precisely because of the familiarity and grasp of the relationship between the two that the US dollar as a sneak attack weapon has repeatedly worked in the market As a currency, the dollar is tangible; but when it becomes the driving force of market ups and downs, it is invisible! L36 gold fell and oil rose by no accident With the international gold price falling below the threshold of $1600 / oz, the major gold stores in Beijing have cut their prices one after another On March 14, the price of decoration gold in some stores was adjusted to 395 yuan / g, and the price of gold bars was also adjusted to 391.7 yuan / g The fall of L36 gold price triggered an upsurge of bottom reading for physical gold A reporter from China Securities News recently found that in the original off-season of gold sales, a large number of people came to see gold in the stores, and many gold stores were even out of stock "In recent years, the sales of gold ornaments and gold bars have been very hot, especially the sales of gold bars continue to rise, and some varieties of gold bars have been sold out," a salesperson from a gold market in Beijing told reporters L36 market is booming However, those who bet on rising gold prices are bitter "The gold jewelry just bought before the festival is 425 yuan / g, and now it's down to 395 yuan / g in less than a month, the necklace of 10G will lose 200 yuan." Wang Fang (pseudonym), who came to the gold market again to search for gold, complained, "the same is true for gold bars Before the festival, the price of gold bars was 408 yuan / g at that time, I thought the price should be at the bottom, so I bought four gold bars of 50g I didn't expect that just after the Spring Festival, the price of gold bars began to fall Now it's down to 391 yuan / g, 17 yuan / g, and 3000 yuan is lost " L36 is similar to them The national development and Reform Commission announced at the beginning of the new year that it would raise the price of domestic refined oil since 0:00 on February 25, with gasoline rising 300 yuan / ton "92 × gasoline price increased from 7.81 yuan / litre to 8.05 yuan / litre, with more than 20% increase per litre I don't drive much I have to spend more than one hundred yuan on gas when I come down in a month " Zhang Haoming, a private owner in Beijing, complained And if you're in a taxi, there's a lot of grumbling about rising costs L36 "the gold price is down, and the US dollar is hard to get rid of." Liu Xu, deputy general manager of Beijing Capital futures research and development center, said that from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, people ' Gold ETFs, which see gold prices open to decline, are also reducing their positions, which in turn aggravates market bearish sentiment The same is true for L36 crude oil Although it is more affected by the real economy, and the government's price adjustment mechanism of refined oil also plays a role, which makes the domestic gasoline price and crude oil trend lag or even deviate, the guiding role of crude oil has never disappeared, and is closely related to the performance of the US dollar If we make a simple K-line superposition of the dollar index, Comex gold and NYMEX crude oil price trend, it is not difficult to find that this is the case in late February On the L36 seesaw, the fall of gold in L36 makes investors who buy spot before the festival suffer, while the fluctuation of crude oil price also makes many people confused If we can grasp some key factors, whether for investors or consumers, the situation will be much better L36 "the key factor is the dollar." Cheng Xiaoyong of Baocheng Futures Research Institute said that the international gold price has been closely related to the trend of the US dollar for a long time The rise of the former is largely due to the continuous depreciation of the latter According to his statistics, since November 8, 1985, the correlation coefficient between Comex's nominal gold price and the US dollar index has been about - 0.6; after excluding the fluctuation factors of the US dollar, the peak value of Comex's gold price is 779.5 US dollars / ounce, lower than 1887.8 US dollars / ounce before excluding; the trough is 209.6 US dollars / ounce, lower than 253 US dollars / ounce before excluding L36 "to some extent, the performance of the US dollar has become the wind vane of gold trend." Tang Rongrong, a gold analyst, selected the US dollar index and the closing price of us gold from January 8, 1992 to August 13, 2012 as sample estimates, and found that for every 1% increase in the US dollar, gold fell 3.54968% L36 is not unique The international crude oil price is also negatively related to the fluctuation of the US dollar, and it runs more smoothly after excluding the fluctuation of the US dollar According to Cheng Xiaoyong's estimation, the historical peak of WTI crude oil is only $92.28, much lower than the previous $147; the historical trough is $15.8, higher than the original $10.42 Besides L36 gold and crude oil, there is also a significant negative correlation between the US dollar index and other commodity prices Research shows that when the US dollar is in a continuous devaluation range, commodity prices keep rising, breaking through historical highs; when the US dollar is in a significant appreciation range, commodities fall sharply after reaching historical highs For example, from January 2005 to July 2008, the U.S dollar was in an obvious depreciation range During this period, the international crude oil, gold, copper, food and other prices hit record highs New York crude oil once rose to 147.25 U.S dollars per barrel, while Luntong copper soared to 8940 U.S dollars per ton However, with the strong rebound of the US dollar from August 2008 to March 2009, the corresponding commodity prices also plummeted Crude oil plummeted from US $130 to US $33.2, a drop of 74% L36 is like sitting on a "seesaw": one side is gold, crude oil, the other is US dollar, you are there, I am here L36 mysterious hand - US dollar L36 if market ups and downs is a gripping drama, then gold crude oil can only be regarded as two leading actors standing at the front desk at best, and the leading market behind the stage is US dollar Many people even think that through the US dollar to determine the gold and crude oil prices with the strongest financial and industrial attributes at key points, Americans have mastered the sharp weapon of "kidnapping" commodity trend L36 "Whoever has the right to make money has wealth." Liu Xu said that when the United States exchanges dollars for the physical wealth of other countries, the dollar will flow out of the United States A large amount of outflow of dollars leads to a correlation between commodity prices and the outflow of dollars However, the U.S dollar outflow is not controlled by the U.S., so the U.S makes every effort to let the U.S dollar that has been digested by other countries' real economy flow back, so as to plunder the U.S dollar reserves of other countries Because the long-term trend of US dollar exchange rate is affected by the change of US dollar value, if the fluctuation of US dollar is controlled by the US, the commodity price is naturally "kidnapped" by US dollar L36 "it's not impossible for international gold and crude oil prices to be manipulated." Liu Jingbo, deputy general manager of Tianjin Jinggu futures, takes gold as an example to analyze that the U.S has a serious fiscal deficit For the first time in 2011, the size of its treasury bonds exceeded the economic output At the same time, the gold reserves of the federal reserve account for more than 79% of the reserves of the world's central banks Therefore, as long as conditions permit, it is normal for Americans to leverage the U.S dollar to raise the gold price to enhance their debt repayment ability L36 "kidnapping may be exaggerated, but there is no doubt that Americans use the dollar to maximize their own interests." Sheng Ti, deputy researcher of the Institute of financial and economic strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the factors affecting the price fluctuation of international bulk commodities can be divided into economic aggregate, supply and demand contradiction, financial market speculation, trade situation and other factors In the case that the prospect of global economic recovery is still unclear, the financial market speculation has an important impact on the change of commodity prices at this stage Sound and function As crude oil and other international commodities are priced in US dollar, the fluctuation of US dollar index has a great impact on the price fluctuation of commodities L36 for example, before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S dollar index hit an all-time low of 70.68 on March 17 of that year, rebounded to 89.62 after the outbreak of the crisis, and then fell to 74.95 in October 2009 under the influence of the superposition of "weak dollar policy" and "quantitative easing monetary policy" in the United States, just a step away from the historical low L36 However, when British media reported in October 2009 that oil producing countries in the Middle East, together with China, Russia, Japan, France and other countries, were secretly studying to replace the US dollar with a basket of currencies (including the yen, RMB, gold, euro and the planned unified currency of the new Gulf countries) as the oil trading currency, and expected to completely abandon the US dollar as the oil settlement currency by 2018, the US dollar index would basically stop It ended the decline and rebounded sharply to 88.71 on June 7, 2010 "This fully proves that there is still a hand behind the so-called free floating international foreign exchange market to intervene and manipulate, and let the dollar index develop in the direction beneficial to its interests." L36 Americans even have "helpers." Looking back over half a year from October 6, 2009 to May 4, 2010, Australia, as one of the world's major mineral exporting countries, has raised interest rates six times in a row under the situation that the global economic situation is still not optimistic Sima Zhao's heart to help suppress the US dollar index and raise international commodity prices is clear L36 "crude oil and gold should be treated differently." Xiao Lei, a researcher at Shiyuan gold bank, holds different views He believes that the cost of controlling gold price by directly manipulating the US dollar exchange rate is very large In the long run, the gold market is more dependent on the emerging economies such as China, India, Russia, etc., and the change of investment demand and physical demand for gold, so the probability of the gold market under the control of the U.S government is small Crude oil is different Because the trading volume far exceeds that of gold, which is not only the most direct commodity for the US dollar to maintain its hegemony, but also affects the economic situation and inflation level of the United States at all times In addition, OPEC and the International Energy Agency and other institutions have some tacit understanding with the US government, so the US will and strength to control it is far greater than gold L36 some analysts believe that in the current context, the investment commodity is equivalent to the investment dollar, so the judgment of market space cannot be simply limited to the superficial high and low prices Since it is difficult for the macro-economy and spot demand to have a sudden change in a certain period of time, the rise and fall should also be determined by factors such as liquidity abundance, market speculation atmosphere and pricing currency,