Who drove the Chinese pig to the "jedi"?

 　　Net loss of 20 billion yuan! China's top 5 pig raising companies in the third quarter of 2021, as a whole fell into the lowest point of the industry!pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Wen's, Muyuan, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology and Tianbang Stock's five major pig-raising listed companies have a total loss of 20 billion yuan in 2021, which is also the largest loss in all previous pig cycles
.
It can be said that China's pig industry has reached the Jedi
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Among them, Wen's shares are expected to have a maximum loss of 9.
75 billion yuan, Muyuan shares 1 billion yuan, New Hope 2.
98 billion yuan, Zhengbang Technology 6.
52 billion yuan, and Tianbang shares 2.
25 billion yuan
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition to Muyuan shares, the other four pig raising companies struggled to make money when the industry was booming
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　What's more, Wen's shares have lost 3.
1 billion yuan in the first half of the year.
According to this calculation, Wen's shares will lose about 13 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and New Hope also lost 2.
3 billion yuan in the first three quarters.
The loss is expected to be around 5 billion yuan
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Another dramatic thing is Zhengbang Technology, with a net profit of 190 million yuan in 2018, a net profit of 1.
6 billion yuan in 2019, a net profit of 5.
7 billion yuan in 2020, and a total net profit of 7.
5 billion yuan in the first three years
.
This time, Zhengbang Technology expects a loss of 6.
5 billion yuan in the third quarter, coupled with a loss of 1.
4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a total loss of 7.
9 billion yuan in the first three quarters
.
In other words, Zhengbang Technology has completely lost the money it earned in the first three quarters in the first three quarters, and it also paid 400 million yuan
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition to Muyuan shares, the situation of several other listed companies is not optimistic.
Most of the money earned in the previous years has been lost
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to media reports, as of last week, the national live pig price has fallen to less than 11 yuan per kilogram
.
In July at the beginning of the third quarter, taking Wen's shares as an example, the company sold 1,278,500 pigs and earned 2.
266 billion yuan in that month.
At that time, it was still 15.
8 yuan per kilogram
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On the other hand, due to the rise in agricultural products, the price of feed did not drop year-on-year, which is even worse for breeders
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　After this round of pig cycle peaked, the rate of decline and the depth of price decline were unprecedented in history
.
What is the reason? In other words, as the title says, what force drove the Chinese pigs to the Jedi?pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The author personally believes that apart from the macro and policy factors, the pig cycle bottomed out in such a tragic way, it is the result of capital's willfulness, or capital gambling
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　As we all know, due to the impact of African swine fever, China’s live pig industry bottomed out in August 2018 and then began to gradually recover.
It began to heat up rapidly in the first half of 2019 and entered a period of accelerated growth.
From the peak of pork prices at the end of 2019 to 2020 At the end of the year, both were in a period of high volatility
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Among them, the state has issued a series of policies to support the development of the pig industry.
The leading listed companies in the pig industry in the capital market have also increased leverage and expanded rapidly
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　What is puzzling is that in the early 2021, after pork clearly entered the down cycle, some leading listed companies still took advantage of the capital market's dominant position to neither slow down nor step on the brakes on the road to scale up
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　For example, New Hope.
By the end of 2020, the annual fund-raising cash inflow reached 70.
8 billion yuan, of which 4 billion yuan was obtained, short-term borrowings 10.
3 billion yuan, and long-term borrowings 22.
9 billion yuan.
Fixed assets that year doubled to 28.
8 billion yuan.
Construction in progress increased 1.
3 times, reaching 11 billion yuan
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The craziness of the other companies is no less than that
.
Readers can refer to it on their own and will not repeat them one by one
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, no one can say, Muyuan shares must say
.
This China's largest pig farming company, the company controlled by Henan's richest man, Qin Yinglin, did play a mainstay role in the difficult period of the industry in 2018, but since 2020, when the industry is overheating and even down, it has not played a leading role.
It should have a role
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The annual report shows that by the end of 2020, Muyuan's short-term borrowings reached 16.
5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.
9 times, and long-term borrowings were 10.
3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.
3 times
.
Of particular interest is the fixed assets of 58.
5 billion yuan, an increase or decrease of 2.
1 times
.
This shows that in the past few years, Muyuan has taken precautions and is leading the industry.
A large number of projects under construction have been put into use by the end of 2020
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, the price of pork began to turn downward.
The price of live pigs dropped from around 40 yuan per kilogram to the current 11 yuan
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　What's even more incredible is that on August 16, Muyuan shares again issued convertible bonds, raising 9.
5 billion yuan, all of which will be used to expand production capacity: that is, all will be used for pig breeding construction projects and pig slaughter projects
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to reports, together with self-raised funds, Muyuan intends to invest 8.
87 billion yuan in 23 new pig breeding bases, which will increase the scale of 6.
77 million heads, and 2.
287 billion yuan will be invested in 4 new pig slaughter projects, totaling slaughter The capacity reaches 13 million heads
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At this time, it is in a rapid downward cycle, and relevant departments are also trying to insure prices and stabilize production.
Large capital of tens of billions of dollars has entered, which is no less than a cold wave from Siberia in the winter
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Capital cannot be willful
.
In the critical period when the industry is bottoming out, in the first half of the year, when almost the entire industry has already suffered losses, the entry of large capital is likely to have an impact on the newly repaired supply chain and weaken the effectiveness of relevant departments’ measures to maintain production and stabilize prices
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The end result is that the entire industry pays a great price for the benefit of big capital
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Qin Yinglin of Muyuan, Liu Yonghao of New Hope, or the Wen family in Guangdong, you might say that China's live pig production is huge and the concentration is low.
Your expansion and increase in production will have little impact on the industry
.
However, you are the industry leader, a listed company, and have the ability to raise funds quickly and mobilize resources.
The market has its own fair view on how big the impact is
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In any case, blind expansion has led to tragic losses of hundreds of millions of yuan at every turn.
From the smallest point of view, it has also failed the entrustment of small and medium shareholders and failed to fulfill the responsibilities of listed managers
.
pWU China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry