Which country is happy with the Sino-US trade war and which country is worried? UN report says negative impact will dominate

Economic Development The impact of the Sino-US trade war is examined in a new study entitled Key Statistics and Trends on Trade Policy 2018( on February 4thfcW
The report stresses that high bilateral tariffs have done little to help local companies in their respective marketsPamela Coke-Hamilton, head of international trade at UNCTAD, said tariffs imposed by the US and China would inevitably have a significant impact on international trade because of the size of their economiesfcW
"Our analysis shows that while bilateral tariffs have had little effect in protecting domestic companies, they are effective tools for restricting trade in target countries," Palmyra saidThe imposition of tariffs by the US and China will have a distorting effectBilateral trade between the United States and China will be reduced and replaced by trade from other countriesthe fcWstudy estimates that about 82 percent of China's $250 billion worth of exports affected by U.Stariffs will be acquired by companies in other countries, with Chinese companies retaining about 12 percent and U.Scompanies only about 6 percentSimilarly, about 85 per cent of the $85bn worth of US exports affected by China's tariffs will be acquired by companies in other countries, with Us companies retaining less than 10 per cent, compared with about 5 per cent for Chinese companiesFrom machinery to woodproduct, furniture, communications equipment, chemicals, precision instruments, the results are consistent in every regionfcW
　　The report says the reason is simple: bilateral tariffs have changed global competitiveness and favoured companies in countries that are not affected by trade wars This will be reflected in the global import and export model fcW
　　The countries that are expected to benefit most from the U.S.-China trade war are those that are more competitive and have the economic capacity to replace U.S and Chinese companies The study suggests that EXPORTS FROM EU countries are likely to grow the most, with bilateral trade between China and the US taking about $70bn (equivalent to $50bn that China could have exported to the US and $20bn from us to Exports) Japan, Mexico and Canada will each receive more than $20 billion in revenue fcW
　　While these figures do not represent the main body of global trade, which accounted for about $17 trillion in 2017, for many countries they account for a large share of exports For example, Mexico will receive about $27 billion in U.S.-China trade, which accounts for about 6 percent of Mexico's total exports Increased exports from Australia, Brazil, India, the Philippines, Pakistan and Viet Nam are also expected to have a substantial impact on their exports fcW
　　However, the study stresses that not all results are positive, even for countries whose exports have increased as a result of trade wars The soybean market is a good example China's tariffs on U.S soybean exports have created trade-distorting effects that have given some exporters an advantage, notably Brazil, which suddenly became a major supplier of Soybeans But because the magnitude and duration of tariffs are unclear, Brazilian producers have been reluctant to make investment decisions because they may not be profitable if tariffs are withdrawn Moreover, Brazilian companies that use soybeans as raw materials, such as livestock feed, are bound to lose competitiveness as Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans drives up prices fcW
　　The study also highlighted that while exports from some countries would surge, global negative impacts could dominate The inevitable impact of trade disputes on the still fragile global economy is a common concern Recessions, often accompanied by commodity prices and the disruption of financial markets and currencies, will have a significant impact on developing countries A major problem is that trade tensions could turn into currency wars, shrinking countries' dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves fcW
　　Another concern is that more countries may join the competition and protectionist policies may escalate to a global level Since protectionist policies are often the most vulnerable to the more vulnerable, it is essential to establish a well-functioning multilateral trading system that can address protectionist policy tendencies and maintain market access for poorer countries fcW
　　Finally, in an interconnected global economy, the tit-for-tat actions of trade giants could have a domino effect that transcends the countries and sectors involved The increase in tariffs hurts not only the assemblers of the product, but also the suppliers For example, large Chinese exports affected by United States tariffs could be the most severe hit on value chains in East Asian countries, with UNCTAD estimating losses of about $160 billion fcW
　　Continued trade tensions initially peaked in early 2018, when China and the United States imposed a $50 billion tariff list on each other In September 2018, the confrontation escalated rapidly, with the United States announcing a 10 percent tariff on imports worth about $200 billion from China and China imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S imports The 10% tariff was originally set to increase to 25% in January this year, but in early December 2018, the two sides agreed to postpone the increase until March 1, 2019 fcW The United Nations Conference on Economic Development released a new study entitled Key statistics and trends on trade policy in 2018 (Keys and Trends in Trade Policy 2018) to examine the impact of the Sino-US trade war fcW
　　The report stresses that high bilateral tariffs have done little to help local companies in their respective markets Pamela Coke-Hamilton, head of international trade at UNCTAD, said tariffs imposed by the US and China would inevitably have a significant impact on international trade because of the size of their economies fcW
　　"Our analysis shows that while bilateral tariffs have had little effect in protecting domestic companies, they are effective tools for restricting trade in target countries," Palmyra said The imposition of tariffs by the US and China will have a distorting effect Bilateral trade between the United States and China will be reduced and replaced by trade from other countries the fcW study estimates that about 82 percent of China's $250 billion worth of exports affected by U.S tariffs will be acquired by companies in other countries, with Chinese companies retaining about 12 percent and U.S companies only about 6 percent Similarly, about 85 per cent of the $85bn worth of US exports affected by China's tariffs will be acquired by companies in other countries, with Us companies retaining less than 10 per cent, compared with about 5 per cent for Chinese companies From machinery to woodproduct, furniture, communications equipment, chemicals, precision instruments, the results are consistent in every region fcW
　　The report says the reason is simple: bilateral tariffs have changed global competitiveness and favoured companies in countries that are not affected by trade wars This will be reflected in the global import and export model fcW
　　The countries that are expected to benefit most from the U.S.-China trade war are those that are more competitive and have the economic capacity to replace U.S and Chinese companies The study suggests that EXPORTS FROM EU countries are likely to grow the most, with bilateral trade between China and the US taking about $70bn (equivalent to $50bn that China could have exported to the US and $20bn from us to Exports) Japan, Mexico and Canada will each receive more than $20 billion in revenue fcW
　　While these figures do not represent the main body of global trade, which accounted for about $17 trillion in 2017, for many countries they account for a large share of exports For example, Mexico will receive about $27 billion in U.S.-China trade, which accounts for about 6 percent of Mexico's total exports Increased exports from Australia, Brazil, India, the Philippines, Pakistan and Viet Nam are also expected to have a substantial impact on their exports fcW
　　However, the study stresses that not all results are positive, even for countries whose exports have increased as a result of trade wars The soybean market is a good example China's tariffs on U.S soybean exports have created trade-distorting effects that have given some exporters an advantage, notably Brazil, which suddenly became a major supplier of Soybeans But because the magnitude and duration of tariffs are unclear, Brazilian producers have been reluctant to make investment decisions because they may not be profitable if tariffs are withdrawn Moreover, Brazilian companies that use soybeans as raw materials, such as livestock feed, are bound to lose competitiveness as Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans drives up prices fcW
　　The study also highlighted that while exports from some countries would surge, global negative impacts could dominate The inevitable impact of trade disputes on the still fragile global economy is a common concern Recessions, often accompanied by commodity prices and the disruption of financial markets and currencies, will have a significant impact on developing countries A major problem is that trade tensions could turn into currency wars, shrinking countries' dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves fcW
　　Another concern is that more countries may join the competition and protectionist policies may escalate to a global level Since protectionist policies are often the most vulnerable to the more vulnerable, it is essential to establish a well-functioning multilateral trading system that can address protectionist policy tendencies and maintain market access for poorer countries fcW
　　Finally, in an interconnected global economy, the tit-for-tat actions of trade giants could have a domino effect that transcends the countries and sectors involved The increase in tariffs hurts not only the assemblers of the product, but also the suppliers For example, large Chinese exports affected by United States tariffs could be the most severe hit on value chains in East Asian countries, with UNCTAD estimating losses of about $160 billion fcW
　　Continued trade tensions initially peaked in early 2018, when China and the United States imposed a $50 billion tariff list on each other In September 2018, the confrontation escalated rapidly, with the United States announcing a 10 percent tariff on imports worth about $200 billion from China and China imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S imports The 10% tariff was originally set to increase to 25% in January this year, but in early December 2018, the two sides agreed to postpone the increase until March 1, 2019 fcW