Whether to maintain a strong remains a variable, corn prices come to the "red line"

 　　2020 is a year of sharp reduction in corn production and a large increase in the supply gap.

　　However, as the price of corn continues to rise, imports and substitution have increased significantly, and the policy has been rushed to plant and expand corn production.

　　In the futures market, corn futures fell slightly on Tuesday.

　　In terms of spot, deep processing companies have strong demand for replenishment and support the spot.

　　U.
S.
corn production is expected to create history, and the increase in substitutes will be suppressed in the short termxPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Last week, according to USDA data forecasts, US corn production in 2021 is expected to hit the 2016 record high.
It is estimated that the US corn harvest harvested this fall is 15.
15 billion cats (384.
8 million tons), which is almost the same as the 2016 record of 15.
148 billion cats.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Driven by demand, the prices of soybeans and corn continue to break new highs, and farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production has greatly increased.
This year the US corn and soybean planting area totals 182 million acres, and the US corn planting area will increase by 1 million acres year-on-year to 92 million acres.
This is also the record for the highest planting area of ​​the two largest crops in the United States.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition to the expected increase in corn production in the United States, the low price of substitutes is also a key factor in the pressure on corn.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to customs data, the cumulative imports of corn and substitutes in 20/21 reached 8.
8977 million tons, an increase of 6.
3837 million tons or 254% year-on-year.
Among them, barley increased by 158% year-on-year, corn increased by 402% year-on-year, and sorghum increased by 266% year-on-year.
Among them, wheat has the strongest performance in replacing corn.
The extremely popular wheat auction a while ago was precisely because of the high price of corn, the replacement of wheat was hot.
Therefore, the increase in the use of substitutes such as wheat and the increase in the volume of imported corn are to some extent negative for short-term corn prices.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, most of the corn quotations of Shandong deep processing companies have exceeded the 3000 yuan mark, and the quotations of the remaining companies that have not broken through are infinitely close.
After the Spring Festival, the price of corn can continue the upward trend before the holiday.
The main reason is that the company did not fully stock up before the Spring Festival.
During the Spring Festival, the harvest was stopped without stopping.
The demand for replenishment was strong after the Spring Festival.
In addition, the road transportation has just resumed, and farmers will sell after the new year.
The grain climax has not yet arrived, and the price increase has triggered a new reluctance to sell.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, corn prices are still facing greater pressure to reduce prices.
The first is the substantial increase in imported corn in a short period of time.
It is reported that Chinese buyers bought 5.
85 million tons of corn in 4 working days.
The total number of orders for corn between my country and the United States is reported.
It also reached 17.
7 million tons, and industry insiders predict that my country will import 20 million tons of corn in the future.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Secondly, feed-end wheat grabs the market.
In recent auctions of temporary storage wheat, the transaction rate is very high, and a large part of it has been snapped up by feed companies.
After all, there are cheaper alternatives who will spend more money.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Finally, the current corn price has fully exceeded 1.
5 yuan, and many companies believe that this price has reached the "warning line" of corn prices.
Under this background, deep processing companies still need to purchase, but feed companies are less motivated to purchase.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Feed companies' response to corn prices is "flat", which is an important hidden danger for subsequent corn prices, and corn prices will also face pressure to reduce prices.
xPn China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry