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The annual medical insurance negotiations have ended.
Although the specific results of the negotiations have not yet been announced, the stock prices of various companies have responded
.
As far as the most concerned oncology drug field is concerned, the domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies involved in this negotiation have collectively risen on November 10, the day of oncology drug negotiation
The huge drop in drug prices triggers turmoil in the capital market
However, before this, medical insurance negotiations have gradually become a nightmare for innovative pharmaceutical companies.
The increasing price drop has caused the future market imagination of drugs to fail to meet the expectations made by investment institutions before the listing, and it is not enough to support the high rise of many pharmaceutical companies.
The price-earnings ratio, which caused drugs to enter the medical insurance through negotiation, turned out to be a short-term bad news
.
In addition, with the upsurge of the pharmaceutical industry, the stock prices of innovative pharmaceutical companies that have been listed successively after the capital market has cooled down, or even broke, take the science and technology board as an example, among the 19 companies that currently have a pipeline of research and development of class 1 chemical drugs and biological drugs, As of November 15th, 6 companies have had their share prices broken, and at the same time, there are 3 companies whose share prices are down and close to the issuance price (up ≤40% from the issuance price).
The combined proportion of companies that are close to breaking and has broken has reached 47%
.
The high-cost R&D investment of innovative drugs does not match the ability to pay for medical insurance
It is well known that the research and development of innovative drugs has the "Double Ten Law", and both time and money costs are very high.
If the drug is to be released on the market to recover the cost and make a profit before the patent expires, the high price of the drug is almost inevitable
.
Figure 1 Long-term, high-cost, and high-risk new drug development
Data source: Kanglong Huacheng prospectus, Guosheng Securities Research Institute
As China has leaped from the previous third echelon "following" to the second echelon with China's pharmaceutical R&D, entering the first echelon has become the goal of the long-term development of China's pharmaceutical industry
.
In this era of rapid development of the innovative drug industry, a large number of new innovative drugs are on the market every year, and the corresponding patients urgently need these drugs to enter medical insurance to reduce the cost of treatment
However, the amount of funds in the medical insurance fund is growing slowly, and it is seriously mismatched with the number of rapidly growing innovative drugs, which makes it difficult for innovative drugs to be included in medical insurance
.
The main contradiction in the domestic innovative drug industry has also been transformed into the contradiction between the increasing number of innovative drugs and the slow growth of medical insurance funds
The "vacation of cages for birds" of the medical insurance fund is still at an early stage
Regarding this problem, the state has begun to solve this problem from the policy level.
The centralized drug procurement policy has enabled a large number of generic drugs to be significantly reduced in price and set aside funds for the payment of innovative drugs
.
However, compared with the large-scale domestic pharmaceutical market that is growing day by day, the current series of policies for the medical insurance fund to vacate the cage and change the bird cannot effectively alleviate this contradiction
.
According to the latest statistics of IQVIA, the decline in drug sales caused by volume purchases only accounts for 44% of the normal growth of drug sales, and the overall domestic drug sales are still growing rapidly
Figure 2 Analysis of China's pharmaceutical sales growth MAT 2020Q2 VS MAT 2021Q2
Data source: IQVIA report: "Review and Prospect of China's Pharmaceutical Market Trends"
High-cost R&D expenses should be paid by a multi-level medical security system
As the medical insurance fund is facing a large number of innovative drugs and the amount of funds is stretched, it is more necessary for policy guidance to leave room for development of other insurances such as commercial insurance, so that China's multi-level medical security system can be constructed and improved more efficiently
.
China's commercial health insurance is still in the early stage of development.
According to the report "Building China's Pharmaceutical Innovation Ecosystem (2021-2025)", China's direct medical expenditure is still growing rapidly, but different expenditure methods are not the same
.
In the past two years, medical insurance expenditures have gradually reached saturation, but as of 2020, the amount of commercial health insurance claims in China has grown slowly and accounted for a very small proportion.
This has led to a continuous increase in the proportion of personal expenditures.
Personal medical expenditures have increased by nearly 80 billion in the past five years.
Yuan, commercial insurance is in urgent need of rapid development to meet the needs of more patients
.
Figure 3 Direct medical expenditures in China
Data source: "Building China's Pharmaceutical Innovation Ecosystem (2021-2025)"
A reasonable payment system is the guarantee for the perfect closed loop of the new drug industry
The foundation of the development of the pharmaceutical innovation industry is long-term and continuous investment in drug research and development
.
Only by allowing companies to get more returns than investment in innovative drug research and development, can they have continuous motivation to carry out the next round of innovative drug research and development
Only the ability to pay can match China's strong new drug research and development capabilities, and a perfect closed loop between R&D, patients, and payment can be formed, and the sustainable development of China's pharmaceutical innovation industry can be promoted