Wheat prices continue to rise in the current international market

Introduction: the international wheat price has been rising since the beginning of May The international wheat price has been rising since the beginning of May It has been rising for three months The FOB price of hard red spring 2 wheat in the United States (FOB Gulf of Mexico) rose 29% from $122 / ton in early May to $157.4 / ton in early August; the FOB price of soft red winter 2 wheat in the United States (FOB Gulf of Mexico) rose 9% from $114.7 / ton in early May to $124.6 / ton in early August; the FOB price of spring wheat in western Canada (FOB Atlantic port) rose by 26% from $138.4/t in early May to $173.9/t in early August; Australian hard wheat FOB rose by 19% from $150.5/t in early May to $179.2/t in early August According to the national grain and oil information center of RRW, the main reason for this price increase is the reduction of supply in the international market due to the poor production prospects of traditional wheat suppliers due to climate factors While the spot market price of wheat continues to rise, the futures price also keeps rising The recent wheat contract price in Chicago is close to the highest in four years The U.S wheat production will continue to decline this year, falling below 50 million tons, the lowest since 1993, the U.N Food and Agriculture Organization reported It is now expected that the winter wheat harvest area in 2002 will be 12.2 million ha, down about 4% from 2001, which is one of the lowest on record Due to the continuous drought in many major producing states, the prospect of per unit yield worsened It is estimated that the yield of Winter Wheat in the United States is 32.1 million tons, the lowest since 1971, 13% lower than that in 2001; the sowing area of spring wheat is 3% lower than that in 2001, 7.3 million hectares, 15.5 million tons, 5% lower than that in 2001 The total wheat output of the United States is expected to be 47.6 million tons in 2002, down 11% from the previous year The latest news from RRW Canada confirmed that the wheat harvest area in 2002 decreased The official forecast for wheat harvest later this year is 10.5 million hectares, down 4% from last year At present, the average yield is expected to be 2.2 tons / ha, lower than the original estimate, but higher than the previous year's level The total wheat output is expected to reach 23 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons year on year RRW according to the information provided by the International Grain Council (IGC), after the world wheat output reached a historical high of 610 million tons in 1997 / 98, it showed a unilateral decrease trend, and the wheat price also fell as a whole, but the demand for wheat did not decrease, on the contrary, it increased steadily As a result, the world's wheat inventory including China decreased year by year, 2002 / 03 The annual world wheat carry over inventory is only 158.7 million tons, which is the world wheat inventory in the past five years RRW